пятница, 9 января 2015 г.

The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2014/15: Round 21

Dan is backing Harry Kane to continue his hot streak

FA Cup weekend gave the editors a much needed breather after the hectic Christmas period, with Joe Dyer well clear in the lead as we go in to the second half of the season. Can Dan, Mike and Luke make up any ground? Here are this week's selections...

Joe Dyer
Back The Draw @ 3.711/4 in Sunderland v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1

An 8/1 winner one week and then I fail to get an odds-against shot across the line next time out. Tough old Battle, this. 

I'm keen to play the bigger prices when possible and regular readers will know my liking for the draw. That is my Round 21 play. 

Sunderland are the Premier League's undisputed dons of the draw, taking the single point from 11 clashes this year, including six of their 10 home games. And yet we can back the draw at 3.711/4 this weekend. 

Liverpool are the visitors on Saturday morning and at even money to win look poorly priced again. Recent result show a spate of wins, but a couple were against lower league oppositions in the cups, while it was only in their last league clash that Leicester were able to fight back from 2-0 down to force another stalemate against the wobbly Reds. It's a peculiar quirk of Liverpool's league record that Brendan Rodgers' side have not drawn an away match but to paraphrase Lewis Jones of this parish 'all trends must end' and I think this is closer than the odds suggest, especially considering the Black Cats were able to take a 0-0 from a visit to Anfield last month. 

With Costel Pantilimon in goal Sunderland's defence has been much improved of late, and Adam Lallana's injury seemed to rob Liverpool of some attacking fluency in midweek so a low-scoring draw is my prediction and I'm happy to take the 3.711/4 available. 

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L +80.50

Dan Thomas
Back Harry Kane to score v Crystal Palace at 13/8 (Sportsbook)
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

The stalemate between Villa and Leicester meant that, despite a largely terrible season, I am in Battle profit and long may it continue.

Despite being burnt by backing Sergio Aguero to score earlier in the season - still can't believe he missed from six yards out at Upton Park - the goalscorer markets have taken my eye again this weekend, in particular a certain Harold Kane.

The Tottenham striker has scored five goals in his last five Premier League matches, including that stunning brace against Chelsea which is probably still giving John Terry and Gary Cahill nightmares.

Opta tell us that Kane has the best minutes/goal ratio of any player to score at least five league goals for Tottenham (149) and I can see him adding to his tally against a Palace side who have gone eight games without a win and will be missing midfield colossus Mile Jedinak (away at the Asia Cup).

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: +2.50

Mike Norman
Back Man City @ 1.9210/11 to beat Everton
Saturday, 15:00

I'm playing it very simple this week and using the straightforward thinking that Everton are really struggling at present, while Man City aren't.

True, the Citizens will be without Yaya Toure, who is on international duty, for Saturday's game at Goodison Park, and Sergio Aguero is very doubtful despite returning to training this week. But Vincent Kompany should be back, and City have been in sparkling form these last few months whoever has lined up for them.

So given their current form City merit serious consideration against an Everton side that has won just once since November - and that was at home to the Premier League worst away side in QPR.

Roberto Martinez's men haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 league and cup games and they haven't recorded a shut-out on home soil in the Premier League since they drew 0-0 with Swansea 10 weeks ago. Man City ought to score a few goals, and that will go very close to winning them the game.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: -25.80

Luke Moore

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Manchester United v Southampton at 2.111/10
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

QPR conceded a last-minute equaliser against Swansea to scupper my bet last time, and to say I was annoyed is an understatement. The Swans were down to ten men too! Oh well, on to this week's selection.

I like Overs in the game between Manchester United and Southampton on Sunday. Yes, Ronald Koeman's men have a good overall defensive record, but I don't think they can keep out a United side full of attacking quality and intent. We also know that United have trouble conceding goals (they've conceded one a game on average overall in the league and only have one clean sheet in their last four games), and so I feel this is a good call.

I predict an open, flowing game with full backs pushing on and lots of creativity and so I hope that means goals. United's strikers are in great form so I'll accept no excuses!

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -38.70

A 10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Editors 2014/15 Season P/L

1. Joe Dyer: +90.50
2. Dan Thomas: +2.50
3. Mike Norman: -25.80
4. Luke Moore: -38.70

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