Brentford v Middlesbrough: Underrated Bees the value in tight clash

Mark Warburton's men have not been given due credit by the market for their exploits this season

Andy Tongue thinks the unfashionable outfit from West London can provide us with some profit in the second televised Championship match of the weekend...

Brentford v Middlesbrough
Saturday 31 January
Live on Sky Sports 1
12:15

Brentford

The Bees have probably been the surprise package of the season so far in the Championship and three wins on the spin have moved them back up into fourth place, just two points off top spot. Each of those victories has been by a single goal but there was plenty of merit in last Saturday's 2-1 triumph at Norwich where impressive midfielder Alex Pritchard, on-loan from Spurs, netted a second-half winner from the penalty spot.

Mark Warburton's side have been in great form at Griffin Park, winning eight of their 13 games with just two defeats. They've not drawn a game since October and despite a few losses (three on the run prior to this winning streak, although one of those was in the FA Cup) their ability to win tight games has ensured they are right up with the leaders as we reach the end of January.

Defensively they've been sound recently, conceding just one goal in those three wins, while Spanish midfielder Jose Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo offers a goalscoring threat from midfield to complement top scorer Andre Gray, who has hit the target 10 times so far. Warburton has benefitted from fielding a settled team in recent times and is unlikely to make any changes to the side which won at Carrow Road for this clash.

Middlesbrough

Boro showed the footballing public who don't follow the Championship what they could do last week with that famous FA Cup triumph away to Manchester City. Aitor Karanka's men soaked up plenty of first-half pressure with keeper Thomas Mejias in outstanding form then struck clinically with two well-taken goals after the interval to stun City and could have had more, given the chances they created.

Midfielder Grant Leadbitter tops the scoring charts from midfield with 10, while Lee Tomlin has has netted three in the last two league games and Patrick Bamford scored at the Ethihad as well in their last Championship clash. Karanka's tactics - soaking up pressure and then striking on the counter-attack - have served them well away from the Riverside this season with six victories although they have only won one of their last five on the road in the league.

Midfielder Adam Forshaw is available to make his debut against his former side, having completed his move from Wigan to the Riverside on Wednesday for around 2.5 million.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Regular readers of these live Championship game previews will know that under/over 2.5 goals is always the first market I look for in the Saturday lunchtime kick-offs as there are strong trends. Two weeks ago, Nottingham Forest's late goal at Derby gave them a 2-1 win and denied one of our recommended bets but 12 of the 16 early kick-offs this season have still gone under the line. That's added to 18 of 24 going under 2.5 goals last year.

With Boro boasting the best defence in the division by some considerable margin - they have conceded just 18 times in 27 games and the Premier League champions were unable to breach their rearguard last Saturday - the 1.9110/11 available looks like a price that has to be taken. The Bees are sure to be up for this game and try to take the initiative with the visitors happy to soak up the pressure and look to strike on the counter-attack with their in-form pair, Tomlin and Bamford.

The Smoggies were held to goalless draws in their last two away league games and failed to score at Ipswich in the match prior to that. They did score five at Millwall and three at Rotherham before that but it may be that on the road they don't cut top-half sides to pieces and this looks set to be a tight, low-scoring affair so get on unders and that juicy 1.9110/11.

Draw No Bet

The market tends to underestimate the more unfashionable sides in the Championship and I think it's doing that again here to a certain extent so we should try to profit from it. The Bees have one of the best home records in the division and have beaten Derby, Wolves and improving Fulham in front of their own fans.

They can be backed at 3.8514/5 in the outright market but the 2.166/5 available in the draw no bet market catches my eye. Griffin Park is tight, old-fashioned ground - a million miles away from the splendour of the Ethihad - and the home crowd will really get behind their men in front of the cameras here with the likely presence of Forshaw adding some extra bite. 

Warburton has described the second-half of the side's meeting at the Riverside earlier this season when his men crashed to a 3-0 defeat as their one bad 45 minutes of football and we can expect them to come out to put that right. There's always a chance that Boro could struggle to reach the intensity of their performance last week and I think it's worth taking a chance on the home outfit with the promise of our money back if the game ends all-square.

Recommended Bets
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.9110/11 *Best bet
Back Brentford Draw no bet at 2.166/5

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 90 pts
Returned: 91.5 pts
P/L: + 1.5 pts

*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets