Australian Open 2015 Men's Betting: Murray to cruise past overmatched Sousa

Sean doesn't foresee an early exit for Murray on Friday

Andy Murray is among those in action on day five of the 2015 Australian Open and after a painful day's tennis betting on Thursday Sean Calvert is pinning his hopes on the Brit against Joao Sousa...Remember, you can watch all the action for free on Betfair Live Video, as long as you have funds in your account...

Things didn't go my way on day four, with Matthias Bachinger failing to take his chances against Jarkko Nieminen and succumbing in three tight sets.

Bachinger hit more than enough winners, but too often failed on the big points, and the Finn was able to edge each set.

There looked to be a great chance of better things late on when Gael Monfils led Jerzy Janowicz 2-1 and by four games on the handicap going into the fourth, but for the umpteenth time this tournament by man went down in five sets.

On to Friday then and early risers will look to Murray to provide some profit when he takes on the determined, but ultimately limited grinder Joao Sousa at around 4am UK time.

Sousa has nothing in his game to worry the top players, as his 1-10 record against top-10 ranked players shows and staying solid isn't going to be enough for him on Friday.

Murray has taken care of the Portuguese comfortably in straight sets in each of their three prior meetings and the margin of victory for the Brit in this one should see the under 27.5 total games come in at 2.01/1.

It's also worth taking Murray to win the opener 6-2 at a price of 5.04/1 or 6-3 at 4.33n/a, with Sousa likely to struggle to win games behind his mediocre serve in these quick conditions.

The other correct score bets I like the look of today focus on tie breaks in the matches involving Bernard Tomic and Tomas Berdych.

Tomic faces fellow Aussie Sam Groth, whose bullet serve is likely to see him to at least one breaker, but Bernie's superior ground game will surely see him take the win.

Despite that huge serve Groth's tie break results lately haven't been great, losing five of his last seven and the 6.5n/a about Tomic taking the opener on the breaker looks worth chancing.

As for Berdych, well, he started out very tentatively indeed against Jurgen Melzer and was fortunate to win the first set against the veteran Austrian, who fell apart in the tie break in that match.

But Berdych doesn't have a record befitting his stature in the game in tie breaks, with just a 45% win mark in the last year and playing a fired up Viktor Troicki may not prove as easy as his match odds of 1.222/9 suggest.

Yes, Berdych has a great record against Troicki, but the Serb has clearly been driven by his view that he was wronged by his drug ban and he can at least keep things close early against the Czech.

A price of 10.09/1 about Troicki winning the opening set 7-6 looks like the pick of the long shots today, considering the Berdman's record in breakers and the high motivation of the Serb.

Recommended Bets
Back under 27.5 total games in Murray/Sousa at 2.01/1
Back Murray to win set one 6-2 at 5.04/1
Back Tomic to win set one 7-6 at 6.5n/a
Back Troicki to win set one 7-6 at 10.09/1

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