DR Congo v Tunisia: Group favourites have upper hand

Tunisia manager Georges Leekens may use defensive tactics

Group B goes down to the wire and a close game is on the cards, writes James Eastham...

DR Congo v Tunisia
Mon, 18:00 GMT
Live on ITV4 & British Eurosport

Tunisia are top of the group with 4pts. They need only a draw to make the knockout phase. DR Congo are in third place on 2pts. They need to win to be sure of making the last eight.

Match Odds
DR Congo 3.412/5, Tunisia 2.466/4, The Draw 3.1511/5

Tunisia were group favourites before the tournament kicked-off and in terms of their points total are living up to their billing. But there has actually been very little to pick between these sides based on how they have performed. Tunisia were no better than Cape Verde in their opening match (1-1) and then lucky to beat Zambia (2-1) in their second match. DR Congo also played out even contests against those two sides, drawing against Zambia (1-1) and then Cape Verde (0-0).

Tunisia have more big-name players and have already shown their ability to win without necessarily deserving to by beating Zambia. Given they've not exactly set the tournament alight and need only a draw, however, Tunisia are not worth backing here. The draw has been the tournament's most popular outcome - 10 out of 16 matches have finished all-square at the time of writing - and that would be my pick.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.538/15, Overs 2.6813/8

I'm wary of this market because it's hard to know how Tunisia will play. Will they be cautious in the early stages, knowing they need only a point? That's quite possible - they may try to avoid overstretching themselves and tempt DR Congo into gambling, leaving opportunities for Tunisia to hit on the break. This has been a tournament for Unders backers - 13 out of 16 matches have featured two goals or fewer. The games have actually been more open than that statistic suggests, but poor finishing has been an issue. I'd rather leave this market alone.

Both Teams to Score?
Yes 2.186/5, No 1.748/11

Both Teams to Score has been the big winner of this tournament, paying out in 11 of 16 matches. But I have my doubts about backing it on this game. Tunisia are under no pressure to attack as they need only a draw to go through, and that could lead to a low-scoring game.

Half Time Score

Nine out of 16 games at the tournament - and three out of four in Group B - have been 0-0 at half-time. That suggests the price on a 0-0 HT scoreline should be odds-on, but it's actually available at a good odds-against price. You could almost see this as a better-priced alternative to backing Under 2.5 Goals on the game. It's my pick on this match.

Recommended Bet
0-0 Half Time Score @ 2.3811/8

Tournament P/L

Staked: 10pts
Returned: 5.15pts
P/L: -4.85pts