Australian Open 2015 Men's Betting: Murray to cover the handicap against fatigued Kyrgios

Can Murray dominate Kyrgios again on Tuesday?

Andy Murray attempts to make the Australian Open semi-finals on Tuesday and Sean Calvert expects the Scot to ease his way past Nick Kyrgios and do just that...

The good luck didn't last long in Melbourne after Andy Murray's 3-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov, as I was foiled again on Monday at the Australian Open.

Stan Wawrinka was two sets and a break up, looking good, but ended up losing five games in a row and narrowly avoided a fifth set against Guillermo Garcia Lopez, before Feli Lopez did win a tie break set against Milos Raonic, but it came in the fourth set not the first.

The opener was heading that way until Lopez double faulted at 4-5 to hand Raonic the set and after an excellent start it's been a struggle to find much in the way of fortune Down Under in recent times.

At least we have two quarter-finalists in the form of Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori on the outrights and each has a chance to make the last four - one more than the other - but more on that later.

Murray is in action again at around 08:15 UK time on Tuesday when he faces Nick Kyrgios and this one will surely go the way of the Brit.

Kyrgios sneaked past Andreas Seppi after saving match point in the fourth round and that five-set marathon will have taken yet more out of the brittle body of the 19-year-old, who isn't used to this sort of continuous punishment and who came into this event nursing a back injury.

This should be a good match-up for Murray, with the Brit being much more reliable in the rallies than Kyrgios, who plays with very little margin for error, and as such will always have peaks and troughs of form within his matches.

The Aussie will rely heavily on his serve to bail him out of trouble and if there is a problem with his fitness Murray's excellent returning will find it out all too quickly.

Murray was a comfortable winner against Kyrgios in their one prior career clash, which came in Toronto at the Rogers Cup last summer when Murray ran out a 6-2, 6-2 victor and I like him on the handicap again here.

It's easy to fall into the trap of following the hype with Kyrgios and I had hoped that the layers might do that a bit more, but he looks realistically priced at around 7.06/1 and so it's worth taking Murray on the side markets.

The 3-0 to Murray at around 2.01/1 is an option, but Kyrgios could zone it for a set and nick one, so I prefer the 1.84/5 about Murray minus 6.5 games, expecting Kyrgios to drop one or maybe two sets by a fairly wide margin.

Berdych should probably be layed on the outright market somewhat ahead of his match with Rafa, as only the very bold would expect the Czech to defeat an opponent he's lost to 17 times in a row.

The Spaniard's struggles with injury and lack of match practice, combined with Berdych's good form so far have aligned to make Nadal a very backable 1.594/7 in this one and that's worth taking if you're not involved in the outrights.

It'd be a fine result for me if Berdych did win, but the mental hurdle is likely to prove too big for the Czech to overcome.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray -6.5 games to beat Kyrgios at 1.804/5

Remember, you can watch all the action for free on Betfair Live Video, as long as you have funds in your account...

Australian Wallet

Remember, to bet on any Aussie Open market you'll first need to transfer funds to your Australian Wallet. Find out more in this video.

Australian Open 2015 P&L

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = - 1.70