European Betting Pointers: Sevilla look to break up big three

Can Carlos Bacca do for Sevilla what Diego Costa did for Atletico?

With the title races in France and Spain ever more intriguing and a free-for-all developing for Italy's final Champions League place, Louis Massarella looks at the hopes of three outsiders: St-Etienne, Sevilla and Fiorentina

Will the Saints go marching on against PSG?

There's no doubt which is the big game in France this week as St-Etienne host fellow title-challengers (and still odds-on favourites) Paris Saint-Germain. The Greens - whose manager Christophe Galtier is being heavily linked with the vacancy at Newcastle - lost to PSG in the cup last week and went down 5-0 in Paris in August, so revenge will be on their minds. But although they've only lost once at home in Ligue Un this season and are unbeaten since early October, St-Etienne rarely blow teams away on their own patch. In fact, they've won five games 1-0 and drawn four 1-1 at home in all competitions this season. Those scores can be backed at odds of 10.5n/a and 7.06/1 for the visit of the champions. Tempting.

Win or bust at the bottom of Serie A

Serie A's bottom two meet in Parma with both nine points adrift of safety. Boardroom unrest has put the skids under the home team's survival hopes, while Cesena - who were only promoted via the play-offs after finishing fourth in Serie B last season with a team made up largely of loanees - were always outsiders to beat the drop. Both have almost identical goal differences, scoring few and conceding plenty, making this a particularly tough one to call. Despite not winning since the opening day of the season, 6.86/1 looks good value for Cesena to end that run. After all, that win was against - you've guessed it - Parma. And a repeat 1-0 scoreline is an equally tantalizing 15.014/1.

A big week for the 'Little Aeroplane'

Having finished fourth in both of Vincenzo Montella's two seasons in charge, Fiorentina are looking to go one better this season. As we mentioned in this column last week, Serie A's final Champions League place is being fiercely contested, with four main contenders - whose goal difference is remarkably similar - plus a handful of outsiders. Set up to counter-attack, the Viola have been more free-scoring on the road this campaign, drawing a blank five times in the league at home. That will need to change if they're to prove their third-place credentials against second-place Roma. Rudi Garcia's men have stuttered to two draws in as many weeks to leave them six points off the pace, but their only defeats away have been at Juventus and Napoli, so Fiorentina may again find goals hard to come by. Montella, though, will have his team up for the challenge against the club where he was a hero as a player. The draw is 3.3512/5, as is under 1.5 goals.

A Sevilla test for title dark horses at Valencia

With the big two slowly edging clear at the top of La Liga, Sevilla have their sights on overhauling Atletico Madrid in third place after winning five of their last six games, but it won't be easy for manager Unai Emery at former club Valencia, who have Champions League ambitions of their own. All three of Sevilla's league defeats this season have come away, while Valencia have only lost at home to Barcelona, which is why you can get 2.166/5 for the home win and 3.65n/a for an away victory. A draw might be a better bet at 3.412/5. Speaking of Sevilla...

Lightning to strike twice in Spain?

Atletico's shock title win last season proved that Barcelona and Real Madrid aren't invincible, yet you can get 160.0159/1 for Sevilla to win La Liga, even though winning their game in hand will take them within to two points of Luis Enrique's second-placed team. Like Atletico last season, the Europa League holders' goal difference is vastly inferior to the top two, but they have the same number - three - in the losses column. Stranger things have happened. You can still get 4.03/1 for Bara to pip their great rivals, who are strong favourites at 1.42/5.