среда, 28 января 2015 г.

Championship: Stingy Derby won't silence Blackburn

Derby will struggle to stop Blackburn scoring at their iPro Stadium

Michael Lintorn picks out his best bets for the Tuesday night Championship games at Derby, Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday...

All matches are on Tuesday at 19:45

Derby v Blackburn

Match Odds: Derby 1.865/6, Blackburn 4.84/1, The Draw 3.8514/5

Derby have been on a clean-sheet-keeping roll since Christmas, obtaining five in six games but, just as there were accurate signs that Middlesbrough would surrender their shutout streak to Cardiff last week, there is plenty of evidence that Blackburn will give Lee Grant reason to grumble.

Unsurprisingly for a side spearheaded by rumour magnets Rudy Gestede and Jordan Rhodes, Rovers have only failed to score once on their travels all season, and that was in September. They have kept just one clean sheet though, while Derby have fired one home blank, so expect both teams to net.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.834/5

Millwall v Reading

Match Odds: Millwall 3.1511/5, Reading 2.56/4, The Draw 3.45n/a

2.56/4 looks like a mighty fine price on the away win given the contrast between Millwall's run of five successive home Championship defeats and Reading's recent sequence of three victories in five in all competitions, but the statistics flag up over 2.5 goals as an even stronger option at 2.226/5.

Five of the Royals' six clashes with the clubs below them have delivered three goals or more, with two of the three road trips going over 3.5 goals.

Seven of Millwall's past ten at The Den leapt over not only 2.5 but that 3.5 mark too, as they contested two 3-3s, a 2-3, a 1-5, two 1-3s and a 2-2.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.226/5

Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham

Match Odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.186/5, Birmingham 3.814/5, The Draw 3.55/2

The Gary Rowett effect at Birmingham has been quite something. This is the three-month anniversary of the 40-year-old's appointment and in that time they have climbed up half a division, from the relegation angst of 23rd in the Championship to the top-half euphoria of 11th.

The Blues have suffered just two reverses in 12 league games to trigger that transformation, winning seven in 11, so a team a mere two points ahead of them shouldn't be close to evens to beat them, especially as Sheffield Wednesday have lost two of their last three games at Hillsborough.

Recommended Bet: Lay Sheffield Wednesday to win @ 2.26/5

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