Mick McCarthy is a streetfighter who knows the Championship inside out
Saturday's live Championship game is a very tasty clash between second and third but Andy Tongue says that backing under 2.5 goals is the way for us to come out on top...
Ipswich v Derby
Saturday, 12:15
Live on Sky Sports 1
Ipswich
Mick McCarthy's men will go top, for a few hours at least, with a win in front of the cameras here. They are currently just a point behind leaders Bournemouth, a side who they also top the form table with - both sides having won five and drawn one of their last six games.
But Town's unbeaten run stretches back to October 21 (a 3-1 defeat at Cardiff) and they gained a creditable 1-1 draw away to a near full-strength Southampton side in the FA Cup on Sunday.
At Portman Road they've been very strong this season with nine wins and just one defeat from their 12 matches so far. Much of that success has been built on a defence which has conceded only seven goals in those 12 games, while their fairly muscular, direct attacking approach is proving very successful.
Daryl Murphy has been something of a revelation in the past two seasons and heads the Championship scoring charts with 17 goals after netting 13 times in the last campaign - the 31-year-old had never quite made the grade at either Sunderland or Celtic but clearly loves life in Suffolk.
Derby
Over the past month we've had plenty of opportunity to get a good assessment of the Rams' current form as they have been shown four times live on television. Steve McClaren's side finished 2014 strongly with a resounding 4-0 win at Birmingham before comfortably dispatching Leeds 2-0 at the iPro Stadium in their last league fixture.
They then made hard work of seeing off non-league Southport with an injury-time penalty in the FA Cup on Saturday. McClaren, who has denied any interest in the Newcastle job despite being second favourite in our next Newcastle manager by August 14th market, made nine changes for that game but still fielded a strong side including Jamie Ward, returning after a couple of months out with injury.
His attacking options have also been increased with the signing of Aston Villa's Darren Bent on-loan for the rest of the season. The former England striker scored twice in five games during a spell at struggling Brighton and showed enough to suggest he has plenty to offer at this level.
He came through the ranks at Ipswich and scored 55 times for the tractor Boys from 2001-2005. Bent's arrival meant that Leon Best has returned to Blackburn, having failed to impress at the iPro.
Match Odds
The market has Ipswich as the slight favourites and available to back at 2.6413/8, while the visitors have drifted out to 2.915/8, probably as a result of the confidence and self-belief which is currently oozing out of Suffolk. However, this looks a tough contest to call so I'm planning to leave it alone on this occasion.
Town are the division's form sides and full of confidence with a manager who knows exactly what it takes to get out of this league but that win at St Andrew's will have given Derby a real boost and they are the best side in the league when playing well, in my opinion.
Given that any one of the three results is viable, the logical conclusion is that the draw represents the value at 3.45n/a but I'm going to look at other markets for the recommended bets in this one.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
McCarthy has built the foundations of his side's success this season on a solid defence - the Tractor Boys have conceded 22 goals in the league, less than everyone bar Middlesbrough and Sheffield Wednesday. Along with Murphy's goals that has proved a perfect combination. Their rearguard has only been breached twice in the last five games at Portman Road, a particularly misery offering to visiting teams.
Derby are sound enough at the back themselves and have only let in 23 goals so it this may not be the entertaining, attacking goalfest Sky will be hoping for. The home side will stick to their tried and trusted tactics of looking to win plenty of free-kicks and corners from which to bombard their opponents penalty area, while McClaren's side may look to sit back and try to strike on the counter.
As we know, the stats show that these lunchtime kick-offs on Saturdays don't produce many goals - 11 out of 14 have gone under the 2.5 line - so I think that the 1.9210/11 available about unders is well worth taking.
Correct Score
If the game is as close as I suspect then the draw is probably the most likely outcome and it's worth a small punt on 1-1 in the correct score market.
At 7.26/1 it's comfortably the shortest scoreline in this market but there's obvious reasons for that with the home side's threat from set-pieces and Murphy's sharpness in the box likely to mean a busy afternoon for the visitors' centre backs, while they boast enough attacking threats of their own to also get on the scoresheet.
If Derby hadn't recorded that fine 4-0 win at Birmingham, who remember were flying at the time and bounced back by going to straight to Nottingham Forest and leading 3-0 at half-time then I may have jumped aboard the Tractor bandwagon too.
But I think that result at St Andrew's will have steadied the Rams' nerves and a can see them earning a valuable point in a hard-fought 1-1 here - it's definitely worth a bet to half stakes.
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.9210/11 *Best bet
Back 1-1 Correct Score
2014/15 P/L
Staked: 85.5 pts
Returned: 87.66 pts
P/L: + 2.16 pts
*2pts best bet if stated
1pt other recommended bets
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