Premier League Relegation Betting: The definitive guide to the drop

Paul Lambert: Strangely anti-goal

As we move into the second half of the Premier League season, Luke Moore takes a look at what's shaping up to be a pretty tight relegation battle and gives his verdict on who's for the chop...

Graeme Souness - a politely terrifying man - once said you should never even bother looking at the league table until Christmas is well out of the way. Best to concentrate on your own performances, pick up as many wins as you can and then see the lay of the land once the turkey and port have finally been polished off. Out of respect (terror) for Graeme, I've waited until now to write this article. I hope he approves.

The relegation picture looks to be made up of a massive nine teams - I'd personally consider every team up to and including Everton for the drop. Leeds, West Ham and Newcastle have all shown over the years that no team in that area of the table in January is 'too good' for relegation.

But what are the candidates' prospects of staying in the top flight for another season? Let's break them down one by one and try and deliver a verdict at the end. We'll start at the bottom and work our way up. First up, Leicester...

Leicester City
Odds on Relegation: 1.75/7

That famous 5-3 win over Manchester United was a day that'll live long in the memory for Foxes fans, and to be perfectly frank, it'll have to. They've only won twice since that game in September and those wins came against Hull and Aston Villa who are both dreadful. Nigel Pearson's side are short of quality, and while their front three - Jamie Vardy (special move: pace), Leonardo Ulloa (special move: big and strong), David Nugent (special move: everything, special weakness: crushing lack of confidence) - seemed pretty well-suited coming into the season, goals have dried up and Wes Morgan is a hapless footballer, probably the most consistently unlucky man in the division. And we all know what Napoleon said about luck.

With games coming up against Spurs, Man United and Arsenal, it's not going to get any easier for them, and it's hard to see anything other than relegation at the first time of asking. Sorry Leicester fans, but someone's gotta go and it's probably going to be you.

Queens Park Rangers
Odds on Relegation: 1.794/5

Despite a coaching staff numbering in the low 200s, Harry Redknapp has failed to inspire his side to a single point on the road so far this season, which, if we're honest, is utterly atrocious. Every time I see them play away from home the same word keeps popping into my head - 'risible'.

With a few notable exceptions, this is a group of players that don't look fit, don't look motivated and don't seem to really know their roles. If it wasn't for Charlie Austin, heaven knows they'd be miserable now (a little Joey Barton joke for you there), and Clint Hill has played the role of plate spinner at a circus for the past few months, only in this rather forced metaphor the plates represent goals being scored by the other team and they're smashing onto the ground literally all the time. Rob Green looks permanently angry, and up until this season I always thought of him as a pretty genial type.

The only thing in Rangers' favour here is that for all his faults, Harry Redknapp has been here before and he knows what it takes to keep a team in this league. He also knows what it takes to get a team relegated though, and I have a feeling the game is starting to leave 'Arry behind. They can't rely on the home form to keep them up. Chiefly because most of the home games they have left are against teams that are all miles better than them - Southampton, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea, West Ham and Newcastle are yet to visit. Oh dear.

Hull
Odds on Relegation: 2.546/4

Hull are a curious one. They had a pretty good side last year, were safe for a while before the end of the season and reached a cup final which on another day they could have won. The age old problem though is that when you attempt to build on that group by signing a load of new players who give the impression of having more of the thing that pundits like to call 'quality', it can upset the apple cart.

When you get a spare minute, look at the Hull side that started the FA Cup final. Grafters. Not a passenger among them. They even brought George Boyd off the bench, who was last seen breaking all sorts of running records at Burnley (more on them in a minute). 

Now look at the players they brought in last summer - Gaston Ramirez, Tom Ince, Abel Hernandez, Hatem Ben Arfa, Mo Diame. The very definition of a 'mixed bag', and that's being kind. Ben Arfa has literally stopped turning up for work. It's not a good sign when the manager confirms that he doesn't even know where one of his players is. 

Burnley
Odds on Relegation: 1.75/7

Burnley. Now here's a team we can all get behind. This side work to Stakhanov levels of commitment, and so far it's sort of working. I think the best Burnley can realistically hope for is to still be in with a shout of staying up with two or three games left and hope a few other sides have been sucked in.

I don't think anyone can question the Clarets' commitment or workrate and when the chips are down that'll stand them in decent stead. I'd back them to drag themselves to a result when it really counts over just about any other team in this list and if they can navigate their next two games (Sunderland and West Brom) they might just do it.

What's also working in their favour is a manageable May. In the final month of the season they face Leicester, West Ham, Hull, Stoke and Aston Villa and if they can't pick up ten points or so from that lot, they deserve what's coming to 'em.

Sunderland
Odds on Relegation: 4.47/2

After getting absolutely tonked 8-0 by Southampton in October, a result that seemed to genuinely offend Gus Poyet (and rightly so), the Black Cats have started to gain a reputation as a side that's quite tough to beat. That said, six teams have managed it since, so I'm not quite sure where that reputation has come from. The problem Poyet's men have is that in no textbook on how to stay in the Premier League does it say: Keep finding ways of playing reasonably well but ultimately losing. It's a terrible habit to be in. 

In their last three league games - Spurs, Liverpool and Man City - they've given a decent account of themselves, but guess what? They picked up 0 points. And that's why they're one point from the trapdoor after 22 games. That said, I can see them sorting themselves out, especially if Jermain Defoe starts scoring, and 4.47/2 is a fair enough price.

Aston Villa
Odds on Relegation: 3.7511/4

I fear for this club. A historic, genuinely big footballing institution managed currently by a man who was one of the most underrated players of his generation, they should be doing better. Unfortunately, they are directionless off the pitch and owned by a businessman who couldn't be less interested than if Sir Allen Stanford offered him an investment scheme.

To say Aston Villa struggle for goals is like saying Jim White enjoys Transfer Deadline Day. They've scored 11 all season. To put that into perspective, when Derby County were relegated with a record-low 11 points, they managed 20 goals. If Villa continue in this vein they'll manage 19.

You can't stay up if you don't score. It's as simple as that. Relegation misses points like a desert misses the rain, and at the moment, Paul Lambert's men are 'Everything But The Goal'.

West Brom
Odds on Relegation: 6.25/1

Reports of Tony Pulis turning up to his first day at the Hawthorns in a superhero's cape are unconfirmed, but before he took the job they were trading at around 2.3611/8 for the drop. Since the baseball cap-wearing, naked-headbutting fiery Welshman has turned up, they look almost instantly safe, even managing to hand out a ritual drubbing to Gateshead 7-0 in the FA Cup into the bargain. The fighting 0-0 against Everton at Goodison Park was textbook Pulis.

It's hard to see the Baggies losing it at this stage with such a seasoned man at the helm, and they have some pretty winnable games to come. But unless Saido Berahino goes this month leaving Brown Ideye, Victor Anichebe and Georgios Samaras to lead the line (entirely possible) and West Brom never score another goal ever again, they should be fine. Hell, they'll still finish the season with more goals than Aston Villa anyway.

Crystal Palace
Odds on Relegation: 6.86/1

If Alan Pardew was made of chocolate, he would eat himself, thus rendering Crystal Palace manager-less and very unlikely to stay in the top flight. Thankfully for Eagles fans everywhere, he isn't made of chocolate, he's made of flesh and bones. For that reason and the fact that he's quite a good football manager despite his obvious faults, there appears to be little chance of Palace going down this season. 

The Selhurst Park outfit are unbeaten in four, have only lost three of their last ten in the league and have some hard-working midfield generals and a sprinkling of quality in a nicely balanced side. They won't beat good sides away from home but the atmosphere at Selhurst along with a savvy manager means they're probably here to stay. The 2-3 comeback against Burnley was absolutely massive.

Everton
Odds on Relegation: 26.025/1

Everton fans should be wary of the 'Too Good to Go Down' moniker. It's going to be a maximum of a month before pundits and commentators and ex-pros like Neville Southall start saying it after another dodgy few results at Goodison Park. It's happened before, and it can happen again. The worrying thing for the Toffees is that they've had lots of injuries and haven't picked up many points since the Europa League, which starts again at a key time and Roberto Martinez remains committed to going deep in the competition. At time of writing, Martinez's men have picked up six points in their last ten league games.

If they're not careful, this could slowly start to become the perfect storm, sucking them down into a terrible footballing whirlpool, and as they glance to the ocean floor before spluttering their last, salty breath, they'll see football ships called 'West Ham '03', 'Leeds '04' and 'Newcastle '09' rotting away.

On the other hand, they'll probably be fine. But that said, a back-to-lay at 24.023/1 when considering they face Palace (A), Liverpool (H) and Chelsea (A) in their next three before the grind of the Europa League starts up again is a shrewd move.

Recommended Bets

Back Leicester/QPR in Relegation Double market at 3.211/5 or bigger
Back-to-Lay Everton for relegation at 26.025/1

Who can you see being relegated this season? Let us know in the comments below!