Bristol City v West Ham: Big Sam can weave his magic in Bristol

West Ham United manager Sam Allardyce

League One pacesetters Bristol City entertain Premier League West Ham United this Sunday, and who better to preview the FA Cup fourth round clash than Hammers fan Alan Dudman...

Bristol City 3.953/1 v West Ham United 2.0621/20, the draw 3.711/4
Sunday 25th January 14:00
Live on BBC1 

Bristol City 

Since Steve Cotterill took over as manager in December 2013, the Robins are far better equipped these days to move back to the Championship than they were 12 months ago. Their form in League One this season has been ultra-consistent, losing just three times and winning 16. 

The Robins rarely shift from their 3-5-2 system, and it works well for this young team (whose average age is 24). Often third tier sides can be set up without the players to fit, but City buck that trend. Korey Smith sits in front of the back three and plays a crucial role, whilst I am personally pleased to see Luke Freeman performing well. He was always a decent player for Stevenage, and his flair really works for this team. 

Cotterill's men have progressed to this FA Cup fourth round clash thanks to victories against Doncaster Rovers (2-0), Telford (1-0) and Gillingham (2-1), and according to Opta Stats, forward Jay Emmanuel -Thomas has netted seven in his last eight FA Cup matches. 

The hosts won't be able to field James Tavernier who is cup tied, but recent loan signing George Saville is available.

West Ham United 

As a Hammers fan, I can honestly say our current play has got me excited again, and the last time I was able to utter those words was probably back in the days of Alan Devonshire, Tony Cottee and Ray Stewart; three of my favourite players. This trophy could be seen as a realistic target, and they are 22.021/1 in the winner market. 

I will try not to bring any sentiment into this, but the east Londoners are a completely different team from 12 months ago. Remember, Sam Allardyce fielded a weakened line-up against Nottingham Forest in last year's FA Cup third round and they were hammered 5-0. That was a sorry performance, and Allardyce must have been clinging on to his job by a thread at that point. I doubt he'll make many changes as he sent out a strong eleven in the third round success recently with Everton. 

The differences at Upton Park have been dramatic in 2014. This term they had earlier achieved eight headed goals - a (then) league high. They've also netted 19 goals from their first 10 Premier League matches (it took them 20 previously). And they have scored in nine successive PL matches this season. 

They recently brushed aside Hull City 3-0, largely thanks to an Allardyce (he might say divine) intervention at half-time. His tactical change prompted a swifter approach as the ball was fired into the box more frequently, and with their full-backs almost playing like wingers, this is their area of success.

Match Odds 

The Hammers will face a very tough game here in a red-hot atmosphere. Ashton Gate is a tremendous venue, and this could potentially  be just as exciting as West Ham's penalties win over Everton. For a team that sit seventh in the top flight, 2.0621/20 is a pretty good price. Last term the Londoners were quite flaky on the road, but away performances this term have been better - in particular their fightback at Stoke City to earn a point in a courageous 2-2 draw. 

If you are punting on the match odds from an In-Play point of view, City's plan will undoubtedly be to try and 'get at' the visitors in the opening 20 minutes, and I expect a fairly frenetic tempo. If the hosts are good enough to take the lead, West Ham's price won't alter too alarmingly by a number of points as they are expected to win, and it would be more sensible to trade the draw odds at odds of around 4.03/1. This could be a very closely-matched 90 minutes.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

I have outlined West Ham's success in terms of their goals accrued from their first 10 PL matches, and I hope Allardyce fields Andy Carroll and Enner Valencia up front again. Carroll looks lean and much fitter now, and shows the value of an old fashioned target man. 

I do like both teams to score here, which should give an angle to trade out of an overs tilt. The Londoners have found the net 35 times this term, whilst Bristol City have netted an astonishing 66 in all matches so far, scoring three on nine separate occasions. The League One side have failed to score on only three times in all competitions so far (from 34 matches). 

It's not surprising the both teams to score market at 'yes' trades at 1.804/5 to back, whilst 1.9520/21 for the over 2.5 goals is about right.

To Score 

If Bristol City can find the net here, there are two sources that have been doing just that recently. Matt Smith has  nine from his last seven matches, whilst Jay Emmanuel-Thomas has bagged five from his last eight. The latter has always had a bit of quality (as befits a former Arsenal man), and he's been superb recently. The 24-year-old also takes penalties, so a price of around 3.02/1 to score looks appealing. 

It's hard to ignore the proposed West Ham front two of Valencia and Carroll, who should both be around 2.206/5 to hit the bet, and they should have plenty of crosses from Aaron Cresswell and Carl Jenkinson to feed off.

Recommended Bets
Back Enner Valencia to score @ 2.26/5
Back both teams to score @ 1.84/5
Back West Ham to win 1-2 and 1-3  @ 10.09/1 and 17.016/1