The UFC 183 betting highlight sees MMA legend Anderson Silva fight Nick Diaz on January 31st. Below, we look at reasons to bet and factors to consider, on what’s destined to be a memorable match.
Is Silva fit to comeback?
Anderson Silva is one of the greatest hand-to-hand combatants in MMA history. His 17-win streak leading into 2013 included a record 16 straight wins in the UFC and a record 11 consecutive UFC title defenses. There’s no disputing the greatness he’s exhibited throughout his career.
After making his job look incredibly easy for more than half a decade, Silva’s remarkable run came to an end when he suffered a surprising knockout against current Middleweight champion Chris Weidman.
The KO came amidst what looked like a playful sequence, and after Silva hinted at retirement following the match, he agreed to a rematch against the young American.
There, he suffered one of the most gruesome injuries in MMA history, breaking his tibia and fibula as his leg wrapped around Weidman’s on a kick.
Silva’s leg was immediately operated upon and set with a titanium rod, within hours of the fight. Dr. Steven Sanders, the performing surgeon, predicted 3-6 months recovery time plus 6-9 months of training to get the leg back in potential fighting condition, though he couldn’t assure a full recovery.
13 months later, Silva’s stepping back into the octagon.
Is Diaz back for the right reasons?
Nick Diaz is a good fighter. With a career record of 26-9, Diaz holds victories over BJ Penn, Frank Shamrock and KJ Noons, along with an 11-match win streak that saw him force his way into the UFC and get an interim title fight against Carlos Condit. That’s not why he’s in this fight.
For all his considerable talent, Diaz is best known for an attitude that sees him spit at authority regularly and thrive on rebellion, with a record dotted with drug-related issues and fallouts with the UFC.
Fortunately for Diaz, this is mixed with the gift of the gab and a bluntness that appeals to the masses, either as love or love to hate. Case in point: Despite the loss to Condit, Diaz then got a title match against Georges St. Pierre.
In the discussion of whether the UFC is primarily a competition or spectacle, this stands out as an argument for the latter. So to does Diaz climbing a weight class after a two-year absence and getting Silva as his first opponent.
Diaz made a small mint off the St. Pierre fight and promptly retired in March of 2013, at the height of his earning power. Since re-signing with the UFC midway through 2014, he’s turned down a number of fights. He finally accepted what should be another big payday.
Can Diaz actually beat Silva?
In determining which side you want your money on, there are two assessments that need to be made. The first of these is whether Diaz could beat a healthy Silva, to which most observers would probably say no.
Half of Diaz’s victories are by knockout, achieved through a style that sees him throw a lot of (relatively) light strikes.
His career rate of 5.63 significant strikes landed per minute would rank 6th in UFC history, but behind fighters with significantly fewer rounds than he’s logged, and that’s despite landing just 42% of his strikes (Cain Velazquez, the all-time leader in strikes landed per minute, lands 58% of his strikes).
He’s able to do this with off-the-charts cardio, but it comes at a price, absorbing 3.5 significant strikes per minute. Diaz has an incredibly tough chin, so this has worked fairly well for him, but it seems like an insane strategy to employ against a man considered by many to be the greatest striker in MMA history (who also has a strong takedown defense).
If you look hard enough, there are a couple of reasons one might be enthused about Diaz against a healthy Silva:
Silva is now 39, and his endurance, more than likely, isn’t improving.
Throughout his run of greatness, Silva only managed two 5-round decision wins.
Diaz hasn’t been knocked out since 2002 aside for a 2007 doctor’s stoppage due to cuts.
If Silva’s striking speed has slowed even a touch, could that be the difference that would allow Diaz make up the difference in the striking battle?
If Silva struggles to knock Diaz out, combined with the inferior cardio, it may lead to problems for Silva?
…but that’s really squinting.
The likelihood in the minds of many is that the two will trade punches, with Silva getting the better of it, and if cardio is an issue, Silva will play a defensive game for the 4th and 5th rounds as he did in his two decision wins, vs. Damian Maia and Thales Leites.
In both those matches, he won the first three rounds decisively, then ran when they chased in the 4th/5th. To his credit, Diaz will chase harder than Maia/Leites, but he showed an inability to force the issue in his loss to Carlos Condit. Unlike the Condit match, Diaz is the smaller man here. Of course, this all assume’s Silva’s health is good.
Who has the layoff affected the most?
Then there’s the second assessment, which simply, is how did the respective layoffs affect both men? We’re not going to pretend to know, but here are a few factors to consider:
Silva’s comeback is awfully quick. One has to wonder if he’s at full steam/confidence/form.
With a broken bone, the key question is confidence. Will Silva feel comfortable in the ring with the residual memories of that wraparound kick? Will he feel comfortable throwing that same kick?
Can rust and age combined have slowed Silva down regardless of the energy? He did lose to Weidman previous to the injury.
Diaz has always been considered a hard worker, but chose not to fight for two years. He’s assured a payday here. Is there a chance his regimen includes a cannabis quotient? Considering his love for the stuff, 22 months off was time to smoke…a lot.
Both comebacks come with their plausible drawbacks. Diaz’s propensity for getting into trouble is likely as big a potential detriment as Silva’s issues.
It’s a bit of a tangled web that also leaves us feeling Diaz could really have a shot here, if not for his remarkable skill at shooting himself in the foot.
Why bet with so much uncertainty?
Most bets that emerge from these articles are based on profit opportunity, but this one’s a little fun too.
Both men have inspired massive shares of the boos heard in UFC over the past decade, which also makes this a fun fight.
Silva’s always sold his matches by skill, making Diaz a good partner for him in a guy who sells a match very well. Of course, you could also sell this simply as an opportunity to see the greatest striker in MMA history punch the obnoxious Diaz in the face a few hundred times.
Couple this with the fact you may decipher the questions we’ve asked here to gain an edge on the market, and you have a fantastic fight to bet upon.
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