Mali v Cameroon: Bucking the overs trend

Volke Finke is doing great work to revitalise Cameroon after the World Cup debacle

Dave Farrar admits he may have underestimated Cameroon and is backing goals in their opener with Mali...

Mali v Cameroon
Tue, 19:00
Live on British Eurosport

If there's one thing that I regret about my outright betting preview of the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations, it's that I wrote off Cameroon a little too readily. I was so irritated by their shambolic performance at the World Cup last summer that I wanted them a million miles away from my portfolio.

Maybe I should have considered the rebuilding work done by the estimable Volker Finke and given Cameroon more of the time of day. Finke has ditched a whole heap of the alleged stars who behaved so poorly last year, and has a strong looking young side with which to go into battle, including what looks like the makings of a devastating forward line: Aboubakar, Choupo-Moting and N'Jie could create quite an impression.

Mali scored twice in four of their six qualifying games and they too have a talented forward line which features the Yatabare brothers and Bakary Sako of Wolverhampton Wanderers. Seydou Keita is still a key player for them at the age of 35, and the game will be won and lost in midfield areas.

We're likely to see Yacouba Sylla and Tongo Doumbia going head to head with Eyong Enoh and the recalled Georges Mandjeck, and I don't see that match-up leading to an attritional, tactical battle and a low scoring game.

There are enough talented attacking players on the field for us to expect goals, and the absence of the suspended Stephane M'Bia from the Cameroon backline weakens them, and means that I won't be rushing to back Cameroon at around 2.01/1.

I can't conjure up enough faith in Mali to support them to actually win the game, and so my feeling is that we should take a chance on goals.

The paucity of goals in these first rounds of matches in the Cup of Nations means that the over 2.5 price is driven up and up, purely on statistics.

Four goals on the opening day showed us that this may not be the bore that recent instalments have proved, and if we are carefully selective, then we can win the odd "overs" bet at a price. I think that this is one of those occasions, and will be investing at 2.747/4.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.747/4