Liverpool v Chelsea: Mourinho set to maintain stranglehold over Rodgers' Reds

Jose Mourinho can make it four wins out of four against Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool

Andrew Atherley predicts goals in the Capital One Cup semi-final first leg at Anfield and reckons Chelsea will have too much nous and firepower for the hosts...

Liverpool v Chelsea
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool
Brendan Rodgers is chasing his first piece of silverware - and Liverpool's first since winning this competition three years ago - but he drew the most difficult semi-final against the team that effectively denied him the Premier League title with a 2-0 victory at Anfield late last season.

Liverpool are in their best form of the season after three straight wins and only one defeat in 14 in all competitions, although they are still far from the swaggering style that took them so close to glory last season.

Steven Gerrard is likely to return to the starting line-up after missing Saturday's 2-0 win at Aston Villa, with Glen Johnson and Adam Lallana also close to full fitness.

Chelsea
For Jose Mourinho, this tie will bring back good and bad memories of the epic battles with Rafa Benitez's Liverpool in his first spell as Chelsea manager. In particular there was the extra-time victory in the final of this competition in 2005, which gave Mourinho his first trophy in England, followed by the Champions League semi-final defeat that still rankles owing to Luis Garcia's hotly disputed winning goal.

Chelsea are further ahead of Liverpool than they were then, and Saturday's 5-0 win at Swansea was the latest sign that Mourinho has constructed a side capable of scintillating football when they are in the mood.

Mourinho has always taken this competition seriously, with two wins in three years in his first spell, and even in the quarter-final against Championship side Derby he fielded six of his regular starting 11.

Whatever side Mourinho puts out will be strong - probably good enough to be in the top three or four in the league - but among the expected changes to the starting line-up from the Swansea match are John Obi Mikel and Andre Schurrle in midfield and Didier Drogba in attack.

If Mourinho is really serious about this match, however, he could pick Diego Costa up front and rest him instead for Saturday's FA Cup match at home to Bradford. A full-strength defence would not be a surprise either.

Match Odds
Since his return to English football, Mourinho has established a firm grip on his former apprentice Rodgers with three wins out of three, the latest being this season's 2-1 Premier League victory at Anfield in early November, which was achieved despite Chelsea falling behind after nine minutes.

Liverpool's revamped 3-4-2-1 formation is well established now and will not be a surprise to Mourinho, whose tactical mastery was evident at Swansea with a high pressing game that played havoc with the hosts' preference for passing the ball out from the back and forced a series of crucial mistakes.

A similar high-tempo approach could work against Liverpool's three-man defence, although it would be no great surprise if Mourinho was happy to play a containment game here with the second leg still to come at Stamford Bridge.

Whether Mourinho will go for the jugular as he did at Swansea is probably the key question in weighing up this match, as it will have a direct impact on his side's win prospects.

Chelsea deserve to be favourites at 2.245/4 and could make those odds look extremely generous with a repeat of Saturday's exhibition but there is always the suspicion that Mourinho puts safety first in this type of match.

They have drawn three of their five visits so far to top-eight sides in the Premier League and the draw is worth serious consideration here at 3.55n/a.

But Chelsea's win record against Rodgers' Liverpool, this season's much-improved form and their greater goal threat give them a significant edge and it could be better to look at ways of improving the win odds. One option to be considered here is Chelsea/Chelsea on the Half Time/Full Time.

Although their record of only one defeat in 14 looks good, Liverpool have not played many high-class sides recently. Only four of the 14 were in the Champions League or against one of the Premier League's top eight and Liverpool have won none of those tougher games (three draws and one defeat).

Against the Premier League's top eight, in fact, Liverpool's record is W2 D1 L4 (Chelsea's by contrast is W4 D3 L1), which suggests a class gap that was not there last season.

Largely that is down to the absence of the departed Luis Suarez and the injured Daniel Sturridge - it is notable that Liverpool won both early fixtures against top-eight sides this season with Sturridge leading the line but have lost three out of four (with one draw) since he was sidelined.

Liverpool's weakened attack makes it hard for them to win this type of match and Rodgers has the added problem that his defence is still not watertight. They have conceded in 12 of their 13 matches against teams in the Champions League or the top eight of the Premier League, winning just one of those games when their opponents got on the scoresheet. That makes Liverpool hard to fancy here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Again, this may well hinge on Mourinho's attitude in trying to win the match. The chances of both sides scoring look good - an option that is priced at 1.910/11 - but Chelsea do not always go all-out in this type of match.

Although they have scored in every one of their eight games against teams in the top eight of the Premier League, only three of those have gone over 2.5 goals and they have had three 1-1 draws on the road in that category.

Notably, Chelsea have conceded in all five away games in that category, which indicates a reasonable chance of scoring for Liverpool, Rodgers' side have had only one blank in seven matches against top-eight sides in the Premier League (in the 3-0 defeat at Manchester United, when they could have had a hatful of goals) and all of those seven games have gone over 2.5 goals.

With Liverpool having conceded in all of those seven games, the chance of this match going over 2.5 goals looks underestimated at 2.1411/10.

Half Time/Full Time
Anyone looking to back a Chelsea win should consider this option, as Mourinho's side have led at the break in 18 of their 24 wins in all competitions - an exceptionally high percentage. Chelsea/Chelsea on the Half Time/Full Time is available at 3.9n/a.

While it is easy to foresee a scenario where Chelsea try to take the wind out of Liverpool's sails with a compact set-up, their goal threat is ever-present and in the Premier League this season they have scored in every five-minute time slot except the 46-50 bracket immediately after half-time.

Chelsea's scoring figures and their record at holding a lead are so good (they have failed to win from a leading position only three times this season) that any early advantage is likely to be turned into victory.

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea/Chelsea on the Half Time/Full Time at 3.9n/a (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 53 pts
Returned: 57.12 pts
P/L: +4.12 pts