Australian Open 2015 Men's Betting: Nishikori to end Wawrinka's title reign

Sean is sticking with Nishikori against Wawrinka

It's another late night in store for Sean Calvert, whose outright tip Kei Nishikori is in action tonight in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and he's sticking with the Japanese star to beat Stan Wawrinka on Wednesday...

Andy Murray gave us more than a few scares before finally sneaking past the handicap mark against Nick Kyrgios in Melbourne on Tuesday.

The Scot looked like he'd done enough when he led the Aussie by two sets and 4-2, needing to hold twice to land my bet, but having not faced a break point in the match up until then he was promptly broken and had to re-break and hold to land the bet.

Not what's required when you've already seen six tips lose in fifth sets already this tournament, but thankfully Murray held firm to put us back in profit.

The other good news from Tuesday that Tomas Berdych exceeded my expectations by thrashing a below par Rafael Nadal and those who held firm on my outright tip on the Czech are looking at a nice profit now.

Of course it could still get better for Berdych backers when he plays Murray in the semis in a couple of days, but for now my other outright pick of Kei Nishikori takes centre stage.

I said before the tournament that this quarter of the draw looked to be a straight fight between Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka and so it's turned out, with the pair facing off for the fourth time in their careers at 3am UK time on Wednesday.

It's not the easiest of matches to call and both will have their supporters, but I still believe in Nishikori, who can back up his US Open win over the Swiss in this one.

That New York clash was one of the best matches of that particular tournament and it could have gone either way, with Nishikori edging it in the fifth set.

With the way my five setters have gone this tournament it might be worth backing Wawrinka 3-2 at 6.5n/a but the luck has to turn and I would actually fancy Nishikori to get over the line again if it went to a decider.

Both players have started the season playing some fine tennis and after a bit of a shaky start to this tournament my outright pick showed his best form against David Ferrer in a straight sets win in the previous round.

Admittedly, Ferrer was probably hampered by bleeding feet, but the Spaniard gets outhit by the Japanese these days and Wawrinka will need to be at his best if he's to get through this one.

Nishikori was hitting his forehand very confidently and defending really well and in these cool conditions heat exhaustion certainly shouldn't be an issue, with wind more likely to pose a problem on Wednesday.

I don't see Stan as quite at the same level he was a year ago here and he was lucky not to have been drawn into a fifth by Guillermo Garcia Lopez in the last round, which would really have harmed his chances of defending his title.

There were clear and obvious reasons to not be confident about Berdych yesterday, with the Czech having lost 17 straight to Nadal, but there are no real reasons to desert my outright choice in this one.

These tight-looking pick 'ems often go convincingly one way or the other and the overs looks set a little high to me, so I'm happy to stick with my original choice and the minus 2.5 game handicap looks good at 2.01/1.

Recommended Bet
Back Nishikori -2.5 games to beat Wawrinka at 2.01/1

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Australian Open 2015 P&L

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 9.70