Australian Open Women's Betting: A trio of outsiders to watch in week 2

Serena Williams is set for a tough fourth round match

As we move into the second week the race for the trophy is really hotting up, and James Boswell provides us with an update on who to follow against the book...

The problem with picking outsiders before the draw, as I'm sure anyone who followed my initial Australian Open tips will have noticed, is that they have a habit of being drawn against each other.

Such was the case for my two hottest tips, Garbine Muguruza and Timea Bacsinszky, both of who were playing some great stuff prior to their third round clash.

The shorter odds triumphed through Muguruza, although Bacsinszky didn't go down lightly, fighting hard in the second set to force a decider, only to be blown away by the younger girl's insatiable energy.

Here's hoping that Muguruza kept some of that energy in reserve though, as she now faces number one seed and number one in the world, the behemoth that is Serena Williams, in the fourth round early Monday morning. The tournament favourite had looked to be cruising prior to her third round encounter with another of my picks, Elina Svitolina.

The young Ukranian had the champ on the ropes at one stage, playing the set of her life to take the opener 6-4, but Williams slowly clicked into gear, and Svitolina couldn't hang with the sheer brutality by the end. It was a test for the tournament market leader earlier than she would've liked, and Muguruza won't be a walk in the park either.

The pair have met twice, once here at Melbourne Park two years ago and then famously at last year's Roland Garros. A young Muguruza was soundly beaten in their first meeting, but learnt her lesson and brilliantly took her revenge on the clay. With the upper hand in recent form and a youthful temerity that knows no fear, Muguruza has every chance and is clearly the value bet of the two still.

Away from my original picks, the bottom half of the draw has been remarkably docile in the way of shocks, with all four quarter finalists coming from the top 10 seeds. Only Ekaterina Makarova offers any value in that field, and I would expect the winner of her versus Simona Halep to be the finalist from the section, but there aren't any value bets to be had there.

For value, we look to the top half of the draw. The biggest outsider left is world number 64 Madison Brengle, who has strolled defiantly through the draw since knocking out 13th seed Andrea Petkovic in the first round. Beaten finalist in the Hobart warm up, Brengle brought good form to the tournament and has continued in that vein.

A big test comes now in the battle of the Madisons, facing her compatriot Madison Keys. Keys knocked out Petra Kvitova in the third round, in probably the biggest shock of the tournament so far, and it's surprising how often a big victory is followed by an ignominious loss against a lower seed; Brengle is the value.

Last but not least comes Dominka Cibulkova. Despite being 11th seed and last year's beaten finalist, the Slovak is consistently underrated and undervalued in the book.

She has been going well this year, and now meets Victoria Azarenka in the fourth round. The Belarussian is looking dangerous also, and holds a great head-to-head advantage, but her injuries in the last few years have prevented her from being her dominant best, and Cibulkova actually leads the head-to-head since 2012. It will be a scrap, but again Cibulkova represents the value.

Recommended Bets
Back Garbine Muguruza @ 36.035/1
Back Madison Brengle @ 310.0309/1
Back Dominika Cibulkova @ 55.054/1

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