Australian Open Betting: Murray the master can go all the way now

Eyes on the ball, control and quality...Andy Murray at his best in Melbourne

Andy Murray has just reached his fifth semi-final in Melbourne but has yet to win the title. Ralph Ellis, who backed him at big odds in December, is still confident that this will be the breakthrough year...

There are always big moments in sport - but they aren't always the obvious ones. We all see the key goal, the crucial wicket, the brilliant chip shot that sets up a birdie; the real turning point has often been and gone a few moments earlier.

That's certainly how it was for Andy Murray in his quarter-final victory over Australia's next big thing Nick Kyrgios. He had it won from the moment he'd clinched the second set - but it was half way through the tie-break that you suddenly saw the quality of Britain's number one.

His 19-year-old opponent had come up with a big shot to earn a mini-break on Murray's serve. After clinging on against an early assault, Kyrgios was suddenly in the game, in a position to make it a set all, and bring the partisan crowd in the Rod Laver Arena to life.

He celebrated as if he'd already won the match, never mind a point. He let out a giant roar and danced around the side of the court. Murray, at the other end, simply turned round to receive - and then won the next point with the most brilliant of topspin lob shots that left the 6ft 4ins teenager stranded hopelessly at the net.

It was the shot of a player totally at ease with himself. Murray is fitter than he's been for more than a year, he's rediscovered his range of shots, and he's settled his coaching team to have everybody pulling in the same direction. He's not even worried about the distraction of his semi-final opponent Tomas Berdych being coached by Dani Vallverdu, the man who had recently walked away from his own backroom team.

"My goal isn't to beat Dani; my goal is to beat Berdych," was how Murray put it, and that suggests he's got his mental attitude perfectly right.

There were signs back in December of the way Murray was returning to his best when I suggested backing him at 13.5n/a to collect his third Grand Slam title in Melbourne. He's down to 4.03/1 now to be the Australian Open winner, but he's looking that good that I'm resisting the temptation to turn the market green.

Of course the Czech will present a tough opponent, and that's before you even begin to think about who Murray might face in a final. Berdych has knocked out Rafa Nadal, after all.

But this has been a tired looking Nadal in Melbourne, who was way off his best. And in Berdych we are talking about a 29-year-old who has only once in his career reached a Grand Slam final (at Wimbledon in 2010), and you have to wonder if he really will have the belief in himself when the match moves into tight situations, as it inevitably will.

In those crucial points it comes down to mentality, and Murray proved against his teenage quarter-final opponent that his mind is strong.  Come to think of it, that lob in the tie-break wasn't just the turning point against Kyrgios - it might very well have been the moment that the Scot found the belief in himself to go the whole way to the title.

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