Premier League Stats Review: Chelsea can take giant stride towards title with home victory over City

Chelsea have a 100% record in home league games against the other big-six teams in Jose Mourinho's second spell

Andrew Atherley says forget Bradford and remember that Jose Mourinho's long-term home record gives Chelsea an excellent chance in Saturday's crunch clash...

Bradford proved in the most astonishing fashion that Chelsea are not unbeatable at home but the Blues still rate excellent value in Saturday's title showdown with Manchester City.

The FA Cup upset was one of those exceptions that prove the rule: in this case, the rule being that Jose Mourinho, and by extension Chelsea, is brilliant at getting home wins.

And because that brilliance does not wane even when the quality of opposition rises, Mourinho's teams almost always offer good value in the big matches. That is the case again on Saturday when Chelsea are available at 2.0621/20 to win the game.

In Mourinho's two spells with Chelsea, the overall home win rate in the Premier League is 80%. In the first spell, Chelsea were part of a big four and now they are part of a big six - taking results against those elite teams as a whole, the win rate is 81%.

That makes it clear Chelsea's performance levels do not dip against the best teams - while, of course, the odds available on a home win rise significantly.

It is also worth noting that Mourinho has a strong record against teams managed by Manuel Pellegrini, having won eight out of 12 (with two defeats) in their Real Madrid-Malaga and Chelsea-City head-to-heads. Mourinho has four wins and a draw with home advantage.

City, of course, are the toughest domestic opponent Chelsea will face at Stamford Bridge and clearly capable of winning on the right day. However, in his title-winning journey through Europe's major leagues - from Chelsea to Inter and Real Madrid, and back again - Mourinho has encountered consistent difficulty in the big matches only against peak-form Barcelona.

Even with City's undoubted quality, Chelsea are a good bet at the odds.

******

The gap between West Brom and Tottenham is bigger than the odds indicate for Saturday's match at the Hawthorns, where the visitors are a solid wager on the Draw No Bet at around 1.910/11.

West Brom may well turn out to be one of the big improvers in the second half of the season under Tony Pulis but Tottenham have the potential to make further progress for Mauricio Pochettino.

The signs are there already, as Tottenham managed only 14 points from their first 11 league games under Pochettino - who at that time was under severe pressure - but took 23 from their second set of 11 matches.

Pochettino's team have lost only two of those last 11 league games (one of those defeats was away to Chelsea - the other was at Crystal Palace in Alan Pardew's first league game with the Eagles).

Saturday's match can be viewed as similar to the Palace encounter, with West Brom buoyed by Pulis's arrival (three wins and a draw from four matches), but Tottenham are well set up for this type of match-up.

This season Tottenham's away record against teams below them in the table is W5 D1 L1, which puts them exactly halfway to matching last season's record in that category (W10 D2 L2).

Even allowing for improvement from West Brom, it is unlikely they will show the form of a top-six side - and it is only in that category where Tottenham's loss rate rises significantly on the road.

With such a solid record in away games against the bulk of the Premier League, Tottenham are the form choice on the draw no bet.

Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to beat Manchester City @ 2.0621/20 (1pt)
Back Tottenham on Draw No Bet v West Brom @ 1.910/11 (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 56 pts
Returned: 59.17 pts
P/L: +3.17 pts