Chelsea v Liverpool: Wounded Blues to make a flying start in cup cracker

Jose Mourinho was far from impressed by defeat to Bradford

Old rivals Chelsea and Liverpool are set to do battle once again, and there's a trip to Wembley at stake. Kevin Hatchard expects goals, and a strong start for the hosts...

Chelsea v Liverpool
Tuesday January 27, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Chelsea

Jose Mourinho described Saturday's FA Cup debacle against Bradford City as the worst defeat of his managerial career, after the Bantams came away from Stamford Bridge with a 4-2 comeback win that left the football world wide-eyed with disbelief. Mourinho said his side should be ashamed and embarrassed by a performance that saw the west Londoners let slip a 2-0 lead at home to a side from the third tier of English football.

You could argue that Saturday's defeat will spark some anxiety in the Chelsea camp ahead of this clash with Liverpool, especially after the Blues were outplayed at Anfield in a 1-1 first-leg draw. However, I would suggest that the pain of that FA Cup exit will sharpen minds at Stamford Bridge, and Liverpool could feel the force of a backlash.

Mourinho left some fearsome players out of his starting line-up against Bradford, and Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, Nemanja Matic, Cesc Fabregas, John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic are all expected to return. It's also worth remembering that Chelsea are generally very strong at Stamford Bridge - Mourinho's men have won all ten of their Premier League home matches, and they have beaten all comers in all competitions apart from Bradford and Schalke (you don't see those two in the same sentence very often).

Chelsea created very little in the first leg, but this was always the endgame for Mourinho - get a positive result of some kind in the Anfield cauldron, and then finish the job in the capital. Part One of that strategy has been completed, and the market expects Part Two to be a success, with Chelsea 1.341/3 To Qualify and 1.654/6 to win the second leg in 90 minutes.

Liverpool

After a fragile start to the campaign, Liverpool have slowly but surely got their act together. Boss Brendan Rodgers has found a 3-4-3 formation that is suiting the players at his disposal, and the result has been a 10-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Electrifying forward Raheem Sterling has played his way back into form (his goal in the first leg was sensational), and young summer signings Lazar Markovic and Emre Can are finally settling down.

This is all fine and dandy, but I can't help feeling that Liverpool may have already squandered their best chance of reaching the final. They missed some excellent opportunities to carve out a lead to take into this second leg, and those failures may return to haunt them. 

There's absolutely no doubt that Liverpool's performance level has improved significantly in the last couple of months, and they played some scintillating football against Chelsea last week, with impish playmaker Philippe Coutinho particularly sparkling. However, if you scratch beneath the surface of that 10-match unbeaten sequence, it's not quite as impressive as you might think. 

Four of the games have been draws, and the highest-ranked team Liverpool have beaten is Swansea, who are ninth in the Premier League. Two of the wins came against lower division opposition, while the other three were against Sunderland, Aston Villa and Burnley, who are all in the Premier League's bottom six.

Liverpool have been denied the talents of striker Daniel Sturridge for most of the campaign, but he has returned to training and could even be on the bench. It's thought Rodgers could field the same line-up that he used in the first leg, having rested a number of key players in Saturday's goalless FA Cup draw with Bolton.

Match Odds

I'm expecting this to be close, but Chelsea are wounded and have some stellar performers who are rested and raring to go. The Blues haven't lost to Liverpool since Brendan Rodgers took charge, and they have beaten the Merseysiders in three of the clubs' last four meetings.

I doubt Liverpool will be able to control this game in the same way as they did at Anfield, and that three-man defence will be sorely tested. Liverpool's Brazilian disruptor Lucas has been in fine form, and his role screening the defence will be crucial.

Chelsea's price of 1.664/6 is probably about right given their home record and their recent successes against Liverpool, but I think it's a bit short for me to recommend.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market expects goals, with overs trading at 1.875/6. I think much could depend on who gets the opening goal. If Liverpool get their noses in front, it could open the game right up. If Chelsea score the opener, they may try to shut things down. 

Games between these two sides have produced plenty of goals in recent seasons. In the last eight meetings, five have produced three goals or more.

Liverpool have scored at least once in 15 of their last 18 games, and both teams have scored in seven of their last eight games against Chelsea. Regardless of the result, I think Liverpool could well grab a goal, and I like the look of backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.910/11.

Half Time

Chelsea will be keen to wash off the stain of that Bradford defeat as quickly as possible, and I think they will fly at Liverpool in the opening exchanges. In six of the clubs' last eight encounters, Chelsea have led at half-time, and in the 34 games they have played this term in all competitions, they have had the half-time advantage in 21. At Stamford Bridge that figure is 12 out of 16.

Based on those numbers, I would suggest that Chelsea are a touch overpriced in the Half Time market at 2.265/4.

Recommended Bets
Back Both Teams to Score at 1.910/11
Back Chelsea in the Half Time market at 2.265/4