Capital One Cup: Why Liverpool will qualify at Chelsea

Steven Gerrard still has one more Liverpool cup final left in him

Michael Lintorn has found four reasons to believe that Liverpool will finish off Chelsea at Stamford Bridge...

The verdict on the Capital One Cup semi-final first leg between Liverpool and Chelsea was that the Merseysiders had the best of the match, but the Londoners ended it with far better prospects of progression. The odds support this view, with Chelsea 1.3130/100 to qualify to Liverpool's 3.8514/5.

However, there are several arguments which counter the consensus that Brendan Rodgers' men needed to prevail at Anfield to stand a chance of reaching the final, including these four...

The head-to-head home-win hideaway
There have only been two home triumphs in the past ten collisions between Chelsea and Liverpool, one per club, with the Reds winning three and drawing another of their last five trips to Stamford Bridge. One of those was in the 2011/12 Capital One Cup and resulted in a 2-0 Liverpool victory.

It's a Mourinho v Liverpool cup semi-final
Chelsea finished above Liverpool in three of Jose Mourinho's four completed campaigns as their manager, but for some reason that superiority fades whenever he faces them in a cup semi-final. It has happened three times before - Champions League 2004/05, FA Cup 2005/06 and Champions League 2006/07 - and he has been eliminated every time.

Chelsea's Capital One Cup secret
Here's a statistic likely to surprise you: Chelsea haven't won any of their five home Capital One Cup clashes with fellow Premier League teams this decade, failing to score in three of the latest four. They were taken to extra time by Man United and Fulham and beaten in 90 minutes by Newcastle, Liverpool and Swansea, with the latter contest being their previous semi-final. Additionally, one of just two home flops of Mourinho's first stint was a shootout exit to Charlton in the 2005/06 edition.

The Blues keep botching the big games
Chelsea haven't beaten a top-four rival this season, with their trademark take-a-lead-and-then-soak-up-pressure strategy seemingly losing its effectiveness. They surrendered two points in the final six minutes at Man City and Man United, and suffered 1-0-and-you-messed-it-up fever again at Anfield in the first leg. This encourages the Reds to believe that, even if they fall behind, the tie isn't over.