Against All Odds: Under 2.5 backers to be torpedoed

Will Marcelino's men march on?

The action from the Copa del Rey continues on television tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that those who tune into Getafe v Villarreal will be rewarded with plenty of goals.

Getafe v Villarreal
Thursday January 29, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

This quarter-final tie is finely poised following Villarreal's 1-0 win at El Madrigal last week. Getafe will have been a touch disappointed not to have scored an away goal but they are only one behind and they come into the game on the back of a 2-1 success over Celta de Vigo on Monday.

That match rewarded under 2.5 goal layers and the same can be said of five of Getafe's last seven on home soil. Quique Snchez Flores' men will be desperate to keep a clean sheet this evening but I can't see that happening and that means they'll need at least three to qualify. The Deep Blues will be forced to open up and that will leave them vulnerable on the break.

Opponents of this selection will point out that as Villarreal have a 1-0 lead, they can just sit back and play for a 0-0 - something which is well within their compass as The Yellow Submarines have kept three clean sheets on the bounce.

I wouldn't be so sure though as if they play to defend their slender advantage, if something goes wrong, they may not have time to recover. Therefore I would expect Marcelino to send out his players to kill the game off early by scoring themselves - something they've done in 13 consecutive away fixtures.

The visitors have seen two of their last three on the road feature three goals or more and I suspect we'll be in for more of the same tonight. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.794/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Getafe v Villarreal @ 1.794/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 26 pts
Returned: 19.7 pts
P/L: - 6.3 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)