Football Bet of the Day: Chase Black Sea Storm for goals

Trabzonspor are usually good for a goal or three

It's been a week of near-misses for Kevin Hatchard, but he's hoping to put things right with a goalfest in Turkey.

Trabzonspor v Sivasspor
Friday January 23, 18:00

A frustrating week got a whole lot worse last night, as Rennes drew 1-1 with Reims in the Coupe de France. As you will recall, I set out two betting options (BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals), but ultimately plumped for the wrong one. If you read the preview and chose the other path, then chapeau. I won't however be doffing my cap to Rennes' Abdoulaye Doucoure, who missed a late one-on-one.

As the cutman works on our wounds, this is where we dig deep and come out swinging. It's a trip to Turkey, in honour of my recent league title success with Kasimpasa on FIFA 15. I won Turkish Manager of the Season, I'll have you know.

In the real world (the one that isn't dominated by ridiculous geeks like me), we're focusing on Trabzonspor v Sivasspor. Our friends from Trabzon have often been good to us in this column when it comes to goals, and that's the road we're heading down again today.

Ersun Yanal sets his Trabzonspor side up to attack, and ten of their last 14 games in all competitions have featured three goals or more. Trabzonspor have the league's third-best attack, with 29 goals netted in 16 games. The Black Sea Storm also have the second-worst defence, having leaked 28 goals.

Paraguayan veteran Oscar Cardozo is the main goal-getter, with nine league goals to his credit this term. The club has recently been given a boost in the transfer market, as they managed to beat Fenerbahce to the signing of Swedish international midfielder Erkan Zengin from Eskisehirspor.

Sivasspor are second from bottom, and desperate for points. That said, the Yigidos (answers on a postcard) have found some form, picking up four points from their last two games. A goalless draw at Kasimpasa (wouldn't have happened on my watch) was followed by a 2-0 home win against Karabukspor.

Although Sivasspor have kept two straight clean sheets, it's worth considering a couple of things before junking an overs bet. Firstly, Trabzonspor play in a very offensive style, which will force the visitors to open up. Secondly, it's worth noting that Sivasspor find it tough to keep things tight on the road. They have collected just five points from eight away games, and six of those road matches have featured three goals or more.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.75/7, and I think that's a fair price given the stats. If you're feeling brave, then there's a big jump to 2.6213/8 for Over 3.5 Goals. 

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75/7

2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 11

Points Returned: 7.43

P/L: -3.57 points