Football Bet of the Day: London is a Den of goals

The Old One-Two-Three: Ian Holloway's Millwall tend to land their punches in Over 2.5 Goal combinations

The road to recovery has lead Tobias Gourlay to south Bermondsey

Millwall v Reading
Tuesday 19:45

A shock in Portugal yesterday.

Not a good shock, like a Chelsea 2 Bradford City 4 sort of thing.

A bad shock. The wet-fingers-in-the-plug-socket type.

Pacos Ferreira 1 Benfica 0 it finished, thanks to a last-minute penalty, but the world keeps turning, just, and we've landed in south east London.

Since 2011 5/6 Championship meetings of Millwall and Reading have delivered Over 2.5 Goals.

This season the Ian Holloway's Lions are third bottom. At home, they are on a losing streak of five, but cut them some slack: their visitors in that run have included every single one of the league's current top four.

Excitingly for us, Millwall managed at least a goal in three of those five. Over a longer period they've hit the back of the net in 7/9.

Reading are seven points better off in 18th. The source of their problems - and a big reason why Steve Clarke replaced Nigel Adkins just before Christmas - is a defence that has conceded 22 times in eight away games (and at least twice in 7/8).

All eight of those matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals and, at the Den, 10/13 games in which the hosts have hit the back of the net at least once have also crossed the goals line.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.265/4 in Millwall v Reading

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Staked: 11pts
Returned: 14.78pts

P/L: +2.78pts