What past BetShares & Market Movement tell us about betting Superbowl XLIX?

For Superbowl 49 Pinnacle Sports will provide BetShare data leading up to the big game. Here we evaluate the last decade of Superbowls and explain how BetShares and market movement have reflected on the results, to help you extract value from this shared data.

A lot of information

This article looks at how past BetShares have indicated potential Superbowl betting success so when you see our BetShares on Twitter, you’ll have more information with which to apply them to your betting. If you haven’t read about BetShares before now, this article does a good job of introducing the concept and its uses.

The following table looks at betting data for the last ten Superbowls, with a close look at which side was most popular in both bets placed and market movement. We’ll reflect on that data below.

Spread data for the last ten Superbowls:

Please refer to this glossary for the table below.

Opened: Opening spread and price

Closed: Closing spread and price

MMW: Was market movement indicative of a winner? Remember, this accounts for the spread only

Score: The final score

C: Did the team cover the spread?

BetShare: The percentage of bets placed on that team to cover the spread

BSMW: Did the BetShare majority side with the team that covered the spread?

Year

Opened

Closed

MMW

Score

Covered

BetShare

BSMW

2005

New England Patriots

(-6) 1.95

(-7) 1.96

N

24-21

N

57.1%

N

Philadelphia Eagles

(+6) 1.95

(+7) 1.96

N

21-24

Y

42.9%

N

2006

Seattle Seahawks

(+3) 1.96

(+4) 1.91

Y

10-21

N

82.8%

N

Pittsburgh Steelers

(-3) 1.96

(-4) 2.02

Y

21-10

Y

17.2%

N

2007

Indianapolis Colts

(-6) 1.96

(-6.5) 1.97

Y

29-17

Y

57.4%

Y

Chicago Bears

(+6) 1.96

(+6.5) 1.95

Y

17-29

N

42.6%

Y

2008

New York Giants

(+14) 2.04

(+12.5) 1.95

Y

17-14

Y

59.1%

Y

New England Patriots

(-14) 1.89

(-12.5) 2.00

Y

14-17

N

40.9%

Y

2009

Pittsburgh Steelers

(-5.5) 1.93

(-6.5) 1.98

Y

27-23

N

59.3%

N

Arizona Cardinals

(+5.5) 2.00

(+6.5) 1.96

Y

23-27

Y

40.7%

N

2010

New Orleans Saints

(+3.5) 2.04

(+4.5) 1.93

N

31-17

Y

41.1%

N

Indianapolis Colts

(-3.5) 1.89

(-4.5) 2.02

N

17-31

N

58.9%

N

2011

Pittsburgh Steelers

(0) 2.02

(+3) 1.87

Y

25-31

N

51.8%

N

Green Bay Packers

(0) 1.89

(-3) 2.08

Y

31-25

Y

48.2%

N

2012

New York Giants

(+3.5) 1.88

(+3) 1.92/td>

Y

21-17

Y

33.2%

N

New England Patriots

(-3.5) 2.03

(-3) 2.03

Y

17-21

N

66.8%

N

2013

Baltimore Ravens

(+3.5) 2.01

(+4.5) 1.96

N

34-31

Y

66.5%

Y

San Francisco 49ers

(-3.5) 1.92

(-4.5) 1.96

N

31-34

N

33.5%

Y

2014

Seattle Seahawks

(0) 1.95

(+1.5) 2.04

N

43-8

Y

29.5%

N

Denver Broncos

(0) 1.95

(-1.5) 1.89

N

8-43

N

70.5%

N

Within this data, we find two important questions, which lead to a third. Let’s look at them along with the patterns formed by the answers.

How accurate was market movement in predicting the team to cover the spread?

The Spread market moved in the correct direction 60% of the time. However, in the last Superbowl, the market moved in the wrong direction.

Was the BetShare indicative of the winner?

It’s critical that you know that BetShares are not a promise so much as an important piece of data. Like any number, it’s up to you to interpret the full meaning, but it’s important to note that a majority BetShare by itself is by no means a promise that the market is on the mark.

Seven times in the last ten Superbowls, the BetShare leader did not win. This is important. Some people on our Twitter feed assume that the stronger BetShare is right, while others yell “fade!” when they see the public taking a strong stance.

The latter group would appear to be validated here. Only four times in the ten years has a BetShare exceeded 60%, and those Shares have gone 1-3. Exceeding 70% has happened twice, both times losers. Bettors may ask, why is that?

One potential explanation comes down to pricing. With many of our bettors being savvy shoppers, they find themselves looking for the best price, or even better, for arbitrage opportunities. Pinnacle Sports’ odds usually lead the market in one way or another, giving price shoppers ample opportunity.

Another possible reason? In a market this large, it's bound to attract casual bettors, teams with a strong national identity - like the 2014 Denver Broncos - or an explosive offense - again, like the 2014 Denver Broncos - can prove the more popular bet.

Name recognition and a desire to see an explosive game might be the reasons some bettors put their money where they do. That may be a reason to do the opposite.

How did BetShare minorities match up with market movement?

Of the six teams that covered the spread when the market made them more expensive, four did not have the majority BetShare. To take it a step further, the three smallest Betshares of the last ten years (2006 Steelers, 2012 Giants & 2014 Seahawks) all covered the spread, and they all won their respective games.

“Sample size” may be ringing through your head, but it’s important to remember this ten-game sample concerns absolutely huge markets, with thousands of bets on each. There are clear patterns here linking BetShares to probability, especially when combined with market movement data and that makes access incredibly valuable, especially when you may be betting thousands of dollars yourself.

What does this mean for Superbowl XLIX?

Midway through the second quarter of the AFC Championship, Seattle opened as a two-point Superbowl favourite over the Patriots. As New England’s slaughter of the Indianapolis Colts played out, bettors were impressed and early interest moved the handicap to even.

It’s stayed there for a number of days, with Patriots’ money twice making Bill Belichick’s team the favourite. As of this writing, Seattle has once again edged ahead. Either way, it looks safe to say the overall market will have moved towards the Patriots by game time, since a two-point move in this-established a market would be monumental.

The BetShare reflects the story, though the landscape is changing. On Thursday, January 22nd, we tweeted that the BetShare was 67.7% New England, 32.3% Seattle. Here’s how it looks now:  

        

We’ll be tweeting the BetShare daily, then updating here.

Past Superbowl BetShare trends suggest the favour is in the Seahawks' corner; past market movement trends like the Patriots. Do you discount the latter as an early market correction? Do you look at the BetShare and immediately fade the public against a Patriots team? Either way, it looks to be a classic game. We hope this information will help make it a little more memorable for you as a profitable one.   

You’re going to be betting on Superbowl, so do your bottom line a favour; follow @PinnacleSports so that when we update, you’ll be the first to know, and have the opportunity to be the first to take advantage.