Against All Odds: Trouble in paradise for Barcelona

Can these three play together effectively?

The Copa del Rey continues this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that there won't be an avalanche of goals at the Nou Camp.

Barcelona v Elche
Thursday January 8, 21:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

A 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad has got tempers fraying at Barcelona, not least that of a certain Lionel Messi who was benched for the clash. It will be interesting to see whether he's back in the starting XI this evening, but even if he is, it's not a guarantee that he will put it all in for his manager, Luis Enrique.

That is part of the reason why I doubt there will be loads of goals tonight for Barca. Messi's state of mind has to be called into question, Luis Suarez has scored only three goals since his arrival and Neymar has just one in his last half dozen appearances. It is also worth noting that when these two last met on this ground in August, the final score was only 3-0.

Elche may well be bottom of La Liga but they have at least kept two clean sheets in their last four on the road in all competitions. They also only conceded one at Deportivo last time and they only shipped more than three on one occasion this term, and that came at the rampant Real Madrid.

Fran Escrib's men struggle at the other end though and that is highlighted by the fact that they have failed to score in their last four away from the Manuel Martnez Valero. This is also the first leg of two, and they tend to be lower scoring than normal games.

All things considered, with over 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.834/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.     

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Elche @ 1.834/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 6 pts
Returned: 8.64 pts
P/L: + 2.64 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)