Premier League: A ban wouldn't Costa lot for Chelsea

Diego Costa has scored 17 goals in 19 Premier League starts

A Diego Costa suspension for his conduct against Liverpool won't hurt Chelsea's chances of beating Man City...

There is speculation that Diego Costa will receive a retrospective ban for getting stampy with Martin Skrtel and Emre Can during Chelsea's Capital One Cup semi-final second leg tie with Liverpool, ruling him out of Saturday's Premier League clash with Man City.

All will depend on what referee Michael Oliver tells the FA. If he confirms that neither he nor any of his assistants witnessed the incidents then the governing body will have the authority to impose a suspension on the Premier League's leading goalscorer.

The belief is that the officials were hoodwinked, meaning that there is a sizable chance of the Brazilian-turned-Spaniard being punished, and perhaps inspiring punters to conclude that 4.03/1 is an attractive price on Man City prevailing at Stamford Bridge.

However, if you are of the mindset that Chelsea with Costa would beat the champions, the statistics suggest that you should retain faith in them at 2.0811/10 even if their star striker is absent.

The Blues actually have a better win rate without the 26-year-old starting than they do with him, triumphing six times in eight games when he has been sidelined (75%) compared to 19 times in 27 with him in the XI (70%). They hadn't lost without him prior to the freak FA Cup exit to Bradford.

Of course, the natural reaction to such figures is to suggest that they are skewed: the majority of times that Costa hasn't started, it has been because they were facing inferior opposition and were confident that they wouldn't need him.

The three Premier League fixtures that he missed serve as a strong counterargument to that point though.

There was a 3-0 stroll past Tottenham (who they lost to 1-5 with Costa), a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw at Man United which would have been a victory if not for a loss of composure deep into injury time. Didier Drogba scored that day, as he did in his other Premier League start since returning.

Other reasons for Chelsea fans to be optimistic include their perfect ten-from-ten home league record this season, Man City's three-match winless streak and the fact that Manuel Pellegrini's side have claimed a mere point from their past four trips to Stamford Bridge.