Guinea v Mali: Expect goals in this exciting group climax

Mali and Guinea should play out a balanced but thoroughly entertaining game with lots of goals

Dave Farrar predicts the so called outsiders will provide fans with a hugely entertaining match...

Guinea v Mali
Wednesday, 18:00
Live on British Eurosport 2

Opportunity knocks for the two so called outsiders in the so called Group of Death, and if Guinea and Mali hold their nerve, then a so called football match might break out. 

Neither of these two have done anything wrong so far, although it's Mali who've been marginally the more impressive. They should have beaten both Cameroon and Ivory Coast, and they have looked well organised with just enough attacking flair. Guinea will be a tough match, though, and I think that this is a pick 'em game. If we are to have another 1-1 draw at this tournament, then this could well be the one. 

Given that I see it as a 50/50 game, the first thing that jumps out is the disparity in the Match Odds prices. Guinea are 3.39/4 which seems on the big side, with Mali favourites at 2.447/5. I just don't see a justification for that, and it's only the strong possibility of a draw that puts me off Guinea. That outcome, incidentally, is trading at 3.211/5.

I'm not usually a fan of reading too much into the group standings approaching any game. I'm never sure that they're quite as relevant as people like me usually tell you. There's a case here, though, to say that with both sides knowing that a win puts them through, defeat puts them out, and a draw likely leads to a drawing of lots, we may be in for an open game. 

Even if it comes down to head to heads and mini groups of three, goals will be like gold dust, and both teams will be aware of that. 

Rather like in the Ivory Coast v Cameroon game, Over 2.5 Goals looks a big price. You can get 2.89/5 about that outcome, and I think there's even a fair chance that this might become the second game of the Cup of Nations 2015 to produce 3.5 Goals. With nearly five points of profit to play with, I certainly can't resist tilting at that particular windmill anyway. 

So that's the advice: and one other suggestion to chuck your way. Try and watch this Group D climax on British Eurosport on Wednesday evening. I've a feeling that, whatever happens, it might be crazy, confusing, and a whole lot of fun. 

Recommended Bets
Over 2.5 Goals in Guinea v Mali @ 2.89/5
Over 3.5 Goals in Guinea v Mali @ 6.05/1