Ipswich v Southampton: Saints to deliver in wild replay

Ronald Koeman - Premier League manager of the year in waiting?

A Southampton win and over 2.5 goals are to be expected at Portman Road, claims Michael Lintorn...

Ipswich v Southampton
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: Ipswich 4.67/2, Southampton 1.9210/11, The Draw 3.7511/4

Both sides have been streaky in 2014/15, so the combination of Ipswich coming off one of their most crushing results - a 0-1 loss to Championship title rivals Derby - and Southampton being fresh from one of their best - a 1-0 victory at Premier League top-four foes Man United - points to an away win.

Southampton went from taking a point from their first two encounters to winning 11 in 12, slipped down the table and out of the Capital One Cup thanks to a six-game winless run which featured five successive defeats, then traded that misery in for a six-match unbeaten burst.

In that sequence, they have conquered Everton and Arsenal as well as Man United, not to mention holding Premier League leaders Chelsea, so it is arguably an even finer slice of form than the aforementioned 11 triumphs in 12.

Don't read too much into their Capital One Cup reverse away to Sheffield United at the height of their slump either, as they have won cup road trips to Millwall, Arsenal and Stoke already this term.

Meanwhile, the reason for believing that Ipswich will produce a negative reaction to their weekend setback against Derby, in which they surrendered the opportunity to go top of the Championship, is the flip-flop nature of their campaign to date.

They went from five joyless fixtures in August to four consecutive successes, then endured five without a win before going 11 without a defeat, prevailing in eight of them. There is no such thing as an isolated blemish at Ipswich. Instead, they always swing from purple patch to grey stretch.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Southampton have been a more reliable under 2.5 goal bet than overs on their Premier League travels this season, failing to clear that hurdle in seven of their ten such outings.

However, it has been a different story in the cups, as they notched twice at Millwall and Arsenal and three times at Stoke before the flop at Sheffield United when devoid of momentum.

It is also intriguing that some of their more fruitful away ventures came when not forced to trek too far up north. They enjoyed 3-1 wins at West Ham and Crystal Palace to accompany their positive showings at The Den and the Emirates in the Capital One Cup.

Ipswich scored at St Mary's and very rarely miss their cue at Portman Road, with the blank against Derby their first in 11 at home, a streak dating back to an "Old Farm" derby loss to Norwich in August.

Not only do they net, they usually do so in bulk, striking at least twice in eight of their last 11 as hosts.

In addition to cementing this writer's belief in backing overs, this is enough to encourage a small punt on the Saints' replicating the 3-2 triumph that they celebrated at Stoke two away cup ties back. That can be backed at 34.033/1 if you share that sense of adventure.

Best Bet
Back Southampton to win @ 1.9210/11

Other Recommended Bets:
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10
Back Southampton to win 3-2 @ 34.033/1