Dover v Crystal Palace: New Palace era to begin with typically gutsy Pardew win

Pardew mastered the art of a narrow win while at Newcastle, and can apply a similar philosophy at Palace

Jaymes Monte previews the first televised FA Cup game of the weekend as Crystal Palace travel south to take on non-league Dover in the third round...

Dover v C Palace
Sunday, 13:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Dover

Conference side Dover come into this game in a fantastic run of form having gone 16 league and cup games without defeat. After a dreadful start that saw the South Coast club lose eight of their first 11 games of the season, they're now unbeaten since the end of October and have climbed up to 12th position in the Conference table and just three points off the play-offs.

Stefan Payne is the club's top scorer with 11 league goals and one in the FA Cup 1st round win against Morecambe - 10 of which have come in his last 15 appearances for the club.

This will be only the second FA Cup 3rd round appearance from Dover, after making their debut at this stage in 2011 when they lost to Huddersfield. The Whites have played four matches to reach this stage of this year's competition and have yet to concede a goal, winning three of those matches by a 1-0 scoreline.

Crystal Palace

The Alan Pardew-era begins this Sunday in what has to be described as a 'no win' game for the Eagles cult hero. It does, however, at least give the new boss an opportunity to have a good look at his playing staff before getting down to the nitty gritty of the Premier League next week.

Palace have lost only one of their 16 previous FA Cup match-ups against non-league opposition, but by contrast have won only one of their last eight FA Cup matches overall and only one of their last 14 away from home.

Marouane Chamakh will miss the game due to a hamstring injury, while Miles Jedinak has now joined up with the Australian national team to play in the Asian Cup and could be unavailable to Pardew for the reminder of the month.

Match Odds

The very fact that this game has been picked out for live television coverage suggests that someone somewhere believes there is good potential for an upset. Or at least they probably did, before the managerial shake-up at Selhurst Park.

Without a win in their last eight matches, up against an in-form Conference side, Neil Warnock's team were potential FA Cup clich fodder. But with Pardew now at the helm and the 'new manager effect' coming in to place I cannot see anything other than a routine victory for the visitors.

Odds of 1.4840/85 for a Premier League club to beat a Conference club don't come around very often, and we should take full advantage of the rare opportunity to back such a price. As a direct consequence there is also some outstanding value available in the Asian Handicap market where you can get Palace -1.5 at odds of 2.35/4.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

One would expect that this market has plenty of potential for In-Play punters. Dover should be expected to start the game reasonably reserved, and content just to stay in the match for as long as possible with the hope of hitting their opponents on the break.

Palace, for their part, will be happy just to maintain possession and take control of the game. Although now under new management, the bare facts are that the Eagles have scored only two goals in their last seven games. Fraizer Campbell hasn't found the back of the net since mid-October, while Dwight Gayle has only one goal in the last three months and Kevin Doyle is yet to score for the club.

Take some of the 2.35/4 on there being fewer than 2.5 goals, with a view to trading out for a profit midway through the first half.

Palace win to nil

At Newcastle Pardew mastered the art of narrow wins based on his side's ability to not concede too many goals. He inherits a Palace side that is already fairly well set up defensively having kept back-to-back clean sheets in the Premier League and only conceded more than once in a game on just two occasions in their last 10 matches. Odds of 2.68/5 on Palace winning this one without conceding looks to be good value.

Recommended Bets
4pts Palace to win @ 1.4840/85
1pt Palace -1.5 @ 2.35/4

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 50.0 pts
Returned: 45.38 pts
P/L: -4.62 pts