Arsenal v Hull: Gunners have the firepower to avoid another scare

Arsene Wenger's side should dispose of Hull more easily this time

In this repeat of last year's FA Cup final, when Arsene Wenger's side needed extra-time to win 3-2, Andrew Atherley expects Arsenal to come out on top in much more straightforward fashion...

Arsenal v Hull
Sunday, 17:30
Live on BBC1

Arsenal

BBC interest in this match comes chiefly from Arsenal's status as FA Cup holders and the fact that this is a repeat of the 2014 final, which turned out more difficult for the Gunners than anyone envisaged. 

Aaron Ramsey came up with an extra-time winner at Wembley, but the 90-minute result was 2-2 and Hull have since repeated that result at the Emirates in this season's Premier League fixture in October.

Ramsey will not be around to rescue Arsenal this time, as he is out with a hamstring injury, and nor will Danny Welbeck, who scored a last-minute equaliser in the recent league meeting.

Welbeck is also on the injury list, along with Mikel Arteta, Mesut Ozil, Abou Diaby, Jack Wilshere and Lukas Podolski, while Olivier Giroud serves the last part of his three-match suspension.

Theo Walcott could return, along with Mathieu Flamini, and David Ospina is expected to take over in goal from Wojciech Szczesny.

The door could also open for exciting reserve striker Chuba Akpom, who has scored nine goals in nine games for the under-21s this season and was a late substitute in Thursday's 2-0 defeat at Southampton.

Hull

Steve Bruce has had a good Christmas with two wins out of three in the Premier League and he will be buoyed further by the return of Tom Huddlestone and Stephen Quinn from suspension.

On the negative side Gaston Ramirez, Mohamed Diame, Michael Dawson, Andy Robertson and Liam Rosenior are all on the injury list.

There is also a question mark over Bruce's selection, as most managers in his position put Premier League survival first. It is worth noting that Hull were in a more comfortable 10th place when they started their FA Cup campaign last season and even then Bruce, aided by being drawn against lower-level opposition, did not put out his strongest side.

Match Odds

Before drawing the last two meetings (taking the 90-minute scoreline in the cup final) Hull under Bruce had lost both Premier League matches against Arsenal by clear margins (3-0 at home, only four weeks before the cup final) and 2-0 at the Emirates. 

In their previous spell in the Premier League they had lost four out of five to Arsenal in all competitions, conceding at least two goals each time - the exception was a famous 2-1 upset at the Emirates in that short-lived golden period following promotion under Phil Brown.

The conclusion to draw from those head-to-head results is that, despite the recent draws, defeat against the Gunners is highly likely for Hull if they keep conceding goals at the same rate - no clean sheet in nine meetings as a Premier League team, with at least two goals conceded in the last eight.

In that respect, Hull's record of only four clean sheets in 20 away matches against Premier League opposition in 2014 is a worrying statistic. Eight of those games were against top-half opponents and Hull's record was W0 D3 L5, with just one clean sheet (this season's goalless draw at Liverpool).

In six of those eight games, Hull conceded twice and it is unrealistic to expect them to keep matching Arsenal if that trend continues. The Gunners have scored in their last 17 home games against Premier League opposition for a record of W11 D5 L1 - the record improves significantly to W10 D2 L0 against teams from outside the big six.

Arsenal's home record is also strong, as you would expect, when they score two or more goals - W18 D3 L0 against Premier League opposition since the start of last season (the draws all being 2-2, against Hull and Manchester City this season and Swansea last season).

Although Hull will be buoyed by their recent performances against Arsenal, knowing they can hurt them, the key to stopping the Gunners is to improve defensively. There is little sign of that happening, with Hull having kept only one clean sheet in 10 games overall against top-half Premier League teams this season.

Unless Hull can defy the stats by shutting out Arsenal, a home win looks a strong likelihood.

Asian Handicap

If Arsenal are highly likely to win, the obvious next question is what type of win will that be? Looking only at scoring games at home to teams from outside the big six since the start of last season, Arsenal have won 17 out of 21 (81%) and it is most notable that 13 of the 17 wins (that is, 62% of the total games) have been by at least a two-goal margin.

That points to Arsenal off -1.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.01n/a as a value bet, backed up by the fact that most of Hull's away defeats against top-half teams under Bruce (eight out of 11) have been by two or more goals.

The counter-argument is that most of Arsenal's clear-cut home wins came last season when their defensive record was better - this season they have managed only two clean sheets in nine home league games. When Bruce's Hull have scored away to top-half teams, their record is W1 D2 L3 and only two have been lost by two or more goals.

Half Time/Full Time

Despite the defensive weakness, if the Gunners are going to win the Asian handicap looks a better-value option than Arsenal/Arsenal at 1.9720/21 on the Half Time/Full Time, as they can take time to open up defences. 

Draw/Arsenal at 4.77/2 could be a better option at the odds, although it is worth noting that Bruce's Hull have conceded in the first half in 10 of their 15 away games against top-half teams.

With their strong and creative midfield whoever plays, Arsenal are always going to be dangerous and they have scored in the first half of four of this season's six home games against teams from outside the big six.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals is probably spot on at 1.68/13, although much appears to hinge on whether Hull get on the scoresheet.

Since the start of last season Arsenal have had 13 out of 21 (62%) over 2.5 goals at home to top-half teams but seven out of nine under 2.5 goals without the opposition scoring.

Recommended Bet
Back Arsenal off -1.5 on Asian Handicap at 2.01n/a (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 46 pts
Returned: 51.22 pts
P/L: +5.22 pts