Against All Odds: War of attrition at the Riazor

Can Bilbao get back to winning ways?

The Spanish return from their winter break today and Paul Robinson is predicting Deportivo v Athletic Club to be a low-scoring affair.

Deportivo v Athletic Club
Saturday January 3, 21:00 GMT

Thanks to a second place finish in the Segunda Division last season, Deportivo's exile from La Liga was only one year. Clearly it will take time and plenty of luck for them to achieve the heights of 2004 where they reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, and this campaign will be about consolidation rather than progression.

After 16 of the 38 fixtures, Victor Fernndez's side are hovering above the relegation zone in 17th place. While they are just three points off bottom, they are only four off the safe confines of mid-table. 

Scoring goals has been a bit of an issue for La Coruna as with 13 scored, they are averaging less than one per game. Despite putting three past Valencia back in October, they weren't able to build on that and have since fired blanks against Real Sociedad and Malaga, and netted just once against both Getafe and Elche at the Riazor.

Opponents, Athletic Club, aren't enduring the greatest of campaigns themselves. There are mitigating circumstances though, most notably their qualification into the Champions League group stage. They could only finish third behind Porto and Shakhtar, but they are at least into the last 32 of the Europa League.

Back to domestic matters though and Ernesto Valverde's men are languishing down in 11th place, already 11 points off the European places. Ander Herrera departed for Manchester United in the summer and top scorer, Aduriz, hasn't been able to hit the heights of last term. The latter is also serving a suspension tonight, which of course won't help their cause in the slightest.

That brings me on to their goal stats, as with 14 scored and 20 conceded, their fixtures this season are averaging a lowly 2.13 goals each time - the second lowest in the entire division. Almost half would have rewarded over 1.5 layers, with a further three paying out those who opposed over 2.5 goals. 

This is a match of two teams struggling for form and goals. I expect it to be quite cagey with a draw not being a disastrous result for either. That's why, with over 1.5 goals trading at around the 1.558/15 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Deportivo v Athletic Club @ 1.558/15

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 1 pt
Returned: 0 pts
P/L: - 1pt (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)