Despite decline Williams is still favourite for Australian Open

The first tennis major of the year begins on January 19th as the world's best women compete in the WTA Australian Open. This 2015 WTA Australian Open tennis betting preview focuses on the decline of Serena Williams, making it one of the most tightly contested in history.

A different approach needed for Grand Slam betting

In Grand Slam events it is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets). Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

However, bettors should still consider that winning seven matches is required to lift a Grand Slam, which is more than the typical 4-5 that is needed to win a normal WTA event. On that basis, bettors may wish to focus on players that have regular tour wins under their belt, as opposed to those who lack consistency.

Similar to the men’s event, service hold percentages do not tend to deviate much from the mean. In 2014, 64.1% of service games were held, whilst this figure fell to 61.5% in 2013. In 2012 this was almost identical, at 61.6%.  These figures are around the 62.9% WTA mean, and show that success on faster surfaces - Brisbane and Auckland - in warm-up events, may not be a superb indicator for success in Melbourne.

Historically, there is less bias towards elite players in WTA Grand Slams, compared to the ATP. Having said that, in the last decade, the Australian Open has been won only twice by players seeded outside the top five - and both of those were won by Serena Williams, who was almost certainly one of the best five players in the world at the time.

An outsider has more chance of being runner-up however, with five losing finalists ranked outside the top five in the last decade. Dominika Cibulkova reached the final as the 20th seed last year, while the recently retired Li Na - the 2014 champion - reached the 2011 and 2013 finals as 6th and 9th seed respectively.

Cibulkova, and Justine Henin (as a wildcard) were the only players outside the top ten to make the final, and therefore, our main focus must go towards top ten players as the main contenders for the title.

Is Serena in decline and what does this mean?

The Australian Open favourite Serena Williams’ stats are in decline. This is illustrated by her current price of 2.76, which is significantly higher than the 1.92 she was available at this time last year – a shift in implied probability from 52.08% to 36.23%.

Furthermore, as can be witnessed in the table below, her combined hard court hold/break percentage of 125.4% is well below the 136.6% she recorded in the 2013 season and whilst this makes her still the best player in the field by a distance, she is far less superior over her peers than in recent years.

In addition to this decline, her recent record at the Australian Open is very poor. Williams has not made the final in the previous four years, with losses to Ana Ivanovic in 2014, Sloane Stephens in 2013, Ekaterina Makarova in 2012, while she didn’t participate in 2011.

The table below illustrates the hold/break statistics of the top ten in 2104, and also includes the two players ranked outside the top ten that are priced under 50 in the outright markets (odds subject to change):

Player

Rank

Odds

2014 Hard Court matches

2014 Hard Court win %

Hard Court service hold %

Hard Court break opponent %

Combined %

Williams S.

1

2.76

41

37

82.3

43.1

125.4

Sharapova

2

8.35

33

25

69.6

45.1

114.7

Halep

3

8.46

29

21

67.9

45.8

113.7

Kvitova

4

10.69

36

26

77.7

38.6

116.3

Ivanovic

5

30.21

45

34

70.5

42.9

113.4

Radwanska A.

6

27.08

39

27

66.9

47.9

114.8

Bouchard

7

11.41

29

17

67

41.9

108.9

Wozniacki

8

10.84

53

40

72.6

44.5

117.1

Kerber

9

45.31

44

31

68.3

44.4

112.7

Cibulkova

10

96.14

42

27

64.6

45.6

110.2

Azarenka

31

8.28

22

14

68.4

40.9

109.3

Muguruza

20

47.92

37

23

63.5

42.3

105.8

These statistics show that apart from Williams, the WTA field is very level. All five of the players ranked 2-5 are split by less than 3% combined hold/break percentage, and this is illustrated in the similar prices on all, except Ana Ivanovic.

Sharapova, Halep & Wozniacki

Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep are vying for second favourite status, with the Russian currently just edging matters. Halep struggled, to an extent, post Wimbledon, with injury niggles preventing her from performing to her absolute best, and it will be interesting to see how she performs in the warm-up events, which she didn’t take too seriously (with just one win from four events) last year.

Sharapova will be a huge threat but tends to struggle against Williams. The American has won their last 15 head-to-head clashes in a run, which stretches back to 2004. Quite incredibly, Sharapova has won just three sets in these 15 matches.

Interestingly, Caroline Wozniacki, who is sixth favourite behind Petra Kvitova, boasts better stats than all apart from Williams, and after a stellar finish to the 2014 season, is a major contender to win her first Grand Slam.

The Dane recorded 28 wins in 36 matches post-Wimbledon last year and in the last six months on hard court, her 75.6% hold and 45.6% break percentages elevated her to a 121.2% combined percentage. There is certainly a big case for bettors to rank Wozniacki as second favourite.

Kvitova, Bouchard & others

Kvitova also improved in 2014 and was rewarded with a Wimbledon title.  Not only this, she also managed to reduce the amount of three set matches she played and this will be of immense benefit to both her fitness levels and reducing the variance of a final set shootout. 

Eugenie Bouchard was beaten by Kvitova in that Wimbledon final, and made the semi-finals here last year. The Canadian prospect, however, is still searching for consistency and recorded the worst hard court win percentage, by some distance, in the above table.  Furthermore, her 108.9% combined percentage was the worst in the top ten.

Ana Ivanovic, Agnieszka Radwanska and Angelique Kerber are next in the market, and all have similar combined percentages to the majority of the top ten. Their bigger prices are mainly due to perceptions that they are unable to compete with the elite, and with Ivanovic’s last final being in 2008, Radwanska only reaching one career Grand Slam final, and Kerber never having done so, those perceptions are entirely understandable.

As mentioned above, Cibulkova reached the final as the 20th seed last year. Failure to come close to that achievement this year will signal a large ranking drop and the Slovak’s form inspires little confidence that she can avoid this – winning a mere 5 of 16 matches since Wimbledon.

Will injury hamper Azarenka?

Ranked outside the top ten but priced under 50 in the outright market is Victoria Azarenka.

However, she has significant fitness issues and is looking to recapture former glories after an injury ravaged 2014.

On her best form, she’d be Williams’ biggest competitor, but since she made her comeback in June, she’s won just 8 of 15 matches. In addition to this, she lost to the rapidly improving Karolina Pliskova in Brisbane (with a starting price of 1.478). This event may be too soon for Azarenka and she may perform better in the later Grand Slams this year.

The 2015 Australian Open promises to be a very open event and offers plenty of value for bettors. With Williams' recent statistical decline, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if she failed to win the title, and the statistics highlight there are a number of contenders ready to take the trophy.