Overs or Unders: Pantomime Villans to play role of scrooge again

Bah humbug: Paul Lambert's side is one of the meanest in the Premier League

Neil Harvey expects the Gunners to be on target but isn't anticipating much guile from the Foxes this weekend, as he explains now in the latest Overs or Unders... 

Saturday

Everton v Manchester City   15:00  

Things are starting to look desperate for Everton, who I keep expecting to get themselves out of the hole they've put themselves in. And yet there they are, still digging. Perhaps this will be the day they climb out. Or maybe not. Either way though, I expect there to be entertainment. The Toffees desperately need a win. And to get that they'll likely need to score more than once against a City side who have netted on average two and a half goals per game on the road this season. As a result of their prolific sharpshooting, 70 percent of City's away games have been high-scoring.

Everton are certainly no strangers to goals either though, with 66 percent of games at Goodison Park this season ending high-scoring. Roberto Martinez desperately needs to roll the dice before he gets rolled out of a job. Meanwhile Manuel Pellegrini will likely continue with the attacking style that's helped City close level with Chelsea at the top. Whichever team should fall behind in this game, I'd expect them to go down all guns blazing. And that should mean plenty of goals.

Recommended Bet:

Goals Over 2.5 @ 1.774/5

Leicester City v Aston Villa   15:00

Wow. Paul Lambert has really sucked the fun out of watching football this season. With just five goals scored in Aston Villa's last five away games, you wonder who would bother making the journey any more. That said though, it pays Lambert's bills, with Villa having ground out five points from those matches - helping them to claw their way up to 12th in the table. And there's no reason to expect anything here but more of the same. Villa will not want to concede ground to a team below them. And a Midlands derby is always sure to have that bit of added spice. Lambert's team also have the second best away defence in the Premier League, so don't expect them to be giving anything way.

Leicester desperately need to win but may not know how to. They've only triumphed once at home this season and so will have a job on their hands to overcome a defiantly defensive Villa. Sitting bottom of the league, you'd think Leicester would be throwing everything they have at pursuing wins. The reality though, is Leicester have failed to score in three of their last five home games. This indicates that Nigel Pearson's team are suffering from a distinct lack of firepower and suggests another low-scoring result could be on the cards.

Recommended Bet:

Goals Under 2.5 @ 1.695/7

Sunday

Arsenal v Stoke City  13:30

Arsenal may not have hit full stride yet this season, but you sense they are getting there. After suffering a string of disappointing results early on, the Gunners are now close to a European place having won four of their last five at home. And they continue to be good value for goals, having scored in all nine of their home games.

There's always the sense though that Arsene Wenger's team will give you a chance. Both QPR and Newcastle scored at the Emirates recently and there's good reason to believe Stoke will too. After all, Mark Hughes' side have done exactly that in eight out of ten away games this campaign. 

A draw against Manchester United last time out proved once again what difficult customers the Potters can be. Arsenal though are no strangers to the high scoring game. Seven of their nine home fixtures have had three goals or more, with the Gunners one of the few Premier League teams who've shown they have enough fire power to concede early on and yet still come back to win - something they may be forced to do here.

Recommended Bet:

Goals Over 2.5 @ 1.855/6

Manchester United v Southampton    16:00

This is one of those games where only the result matters. Just a point separate United and Southampton. And come the end of the season that could be the difference between being in the Champions League or not. The classic six pointer demands that extra bit of attention from teams, as well as that slightly enhanced sense of caution.

The Saints would undoubtedly be happy to leave Old Trafford with a draw. And that's probably what they will go there playing for. Such a tentative approach has been evident in all their away games. And to an extent it's worked, with Southampton having conceded less goals than anyone else on the road this season. Four low-scoring results from their last five away matches further support the suggestion that the Saints will be looking to keep things tight.

Manchester United had been in fine goalscoring form until recently. But 0-0 and 1-1 draws in their last two Premier League outings indicate they may just have gone off the boil. And so that makes a low-scoring game here the preferable call.

Recommended Bet:

Goals Under 2.5 @ 1.865/6

2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 68pts
Returned: 69.53pts
P/L: +1.53