Against All Odds: Roman Empire to be rebuilt on goals

Filip orevi has hit the ground running since his move from Nantes

The week begins in Italy for Paul Robinson as he looks to make it three winners on the bounce with a Serie A clash between Lazio and Sampdoria.

Lazio v Sampdoria
Monday January 5, 19:45 GMT
Live on ESPN and Betfair Live Video  

After a poor campaign last year that saw them finish in ninth place, Lazio are flying high this season as they emerge from the winter break in third spot, albeit nine points adrift of second and only three ahead of Fiorentina in eighth.

Stefano Pioli has joined the club and he is got them scoring goals. Only Juventus have netted more and the only reason they aren't fighting it out with The Old Lady at the top is because they've conceded 19 to Juve's seven. 

That has led to their fixtures averaging 2.94 goals each time, with 11 of the 16 rewarding under 2.5 layers. Perhaps the most promising statistic about this selection though is that six of their seven at Stadio Olimpico this term have had three or more goals, with their last five scorelines being 3-2, 2-1, 4-2, 0-3 and 3-0.

If Lazio were enjoying a fine campaign then Sampdoria are as well. Level on points with their opponents, they are two places below them on goal difference only. The key to their success has been avoiding defeat as they've lost just one of 16, and that came back in October.

Opposing the hosts at odds-on was an option I considered, but given the goal stats already quoted, combined with Sampdoria's matches averaging a respectable 2.25 goals, this seems to be the better option. Also, while only two of their last five on the road have gone over 2.5, two of them missed out by just a single goal.

I was quite surprised to see under 2.5 goals as the favourite in this market, so with it trading at around the 1.84/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Lazio v Sampdoria @ 1.84/5

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 3 pts
Returned: 6.45 pts
P/L: + 3.45 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)