ATP Brisbane International Betting: Nishikori to start new season with a title

Can Nishikori start the season with a title in Brisbane?

The ATP World Tour returns for the 2015 season this week, with three ATP 250 events in the lead-up to the Australian Open in a little over a fortnight's time and Sean Calvert is back to preview the Brisbane International...

The calendar has changed a little this season, with an extended grass court mini-season among the new initiatives, but our season-opening events remain the same.

Brisbane, Chennai and Doha are the places to be for men's tennis action, but even this early in the season we have a few big name casualties, with Marin Cilic and Juan Martin Del Potro among the stars on the sidelines.

Cilic is still struggling with a long-term shoulder problem and misses his scheduled appearance at the Brisbane International, while Delpo is in the same boat after failing to recover from an even longer-term wrist issue.

The layers have Roger Federer as a short-priced 2.01/1 favourite to go one better than 12 months ago when the Swiss lost to Lleyton Hewitt in the final here, but he hasn't won a title in January since 2011 and for me better value lies elsewhere in this opening week of the season.

Federer ended the 2014 campaign with a win in the Davis Cup Final and his first action of this year will most likely involve matches against Grigor Dimitrov and Gilles Simon, with Alex Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy, Martin Klizan and Jarkko Nieminen others in with chances in that half of the draw.

The bottom half is also competitive, despite the withdrawals of Cilic and Delpo, with Kevin Anderson, Hewitt, Milos Raonic, Bernard Tomic, Julien Benneteau, Sam Querrey, and Kei Nishikori all possibilities to make the first final of the year in Brisbane.

Of these, I like the chances of Nishikori at 5.59/2, with that price appearing to offer much more value than the tight-looking 2.01/1 on Federer in the opposite half of the draw.

Nishikori's breakthrough Slam run in New York and consequent appearance at the World Tour Finals should have given him the belief that he belongs at tennis's top table and if he's injury-free he can go one better than a year ago here.

The world number five was a semi final loser to Hewitt 12 months ago and he also retired at the same stage to Andy Murray a year before that, but the link-up with Michael Chang has heralded a distinct upturn in results and if stays fit he can have a big year.

On all recent form he should have the edge on Raonic and co in this tournament and the fast conditions here shouldn't give Raonic any real advantage over Nishikori, with that match-up favouring the better returner and shot maker.

Nishikori has won four of his five against the Canadian, who hasn't shown much at this early stage of the season in the past.

A poor showing at the World Tour Finals in his favoured indoor conditions at the end of last season won't have done much for Raonic's confidence and as an alternative to Nishikori I would prefer the mercurial Tomic at 34.033/1.

Rarely the same player outside of his home nation of Australia Tomic could well spark into life either here or in Sydney or Melbourne and him, Simon or Chardy look the best of the outsiders.

Chardy often shows up well at this part of the tour and he's no forlorn hope at 65.064/1, as one win and another tight loss (in the semis here) to Federer last season and a 2013 quarter final in Melbourne illustrate, and the quick conditions will help his big serve and forehand.

Consistency, as ever, is the issue with Chardy, but he's won nine of his last 12 matches in Australia and lost only to Federer, Andy Murray and David Ferrer in that time, so for me he's the best of the big prices.

Simon showed glimpses of excellent form last season when he decided to adopt a more attacking approach and at 34.033/1 the Frenchman appeals more to me than Dimitrov in that top half of the draw.

Gillou says that he can only play in that more attacking way when his body allows and perhaps it might be a little too quick for him here in Brisbane, but he has won in quick conditions before and much depends on this attitude this week.

Dimitrov made the final here in 2012 and he's not without a chance of repeating that feat this time around, but he's drawn to meet Federer in the semis and the Bulgarian is yet to take a set from the Swiss and produced two tame attempts against Fed in the last couple of seasons.

The quick PlexiCushion outdoor hard conditions here usually favour the big servers and we've already seen the likes of Marius Copil, Frank Dancevic and Lukasz Kubot do well in the qualifying event this weekend, so that would appear to be the case again.

Talking of qualifiers, Viktor Troicki is one to perhaps think about if he gets past Denis Kudla in final qualifying, but this event has been dominated by high-ranked players of late and it's hard to see a big upset this week.

So, Nishikori for me at around the 5.59/2 mark and Chardy at a big-looking 65.064/1 look the wagers for week one of the 2015 ATP World Tour.

Recommended Bet
Back Nishikori at 5.59/2

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Chardy at 65.064/1