Against All Odds: No bore draw in Turin

Can Carlos Tevez fire his team to top spot?

It's Champions League action for Paul Robinson this evening as he feels there is value to be had in opposing under 2.5 goals in the clash between Juventus and Atletico Madrid.

Juventus v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday December 9, 19:45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Interactive

After a dismal showing in this competition last year, Juventus are on the verge of making the knockout phase. It hasn't been plain sailing though as back to back defeats in Spain and Greece left them in a somewhat precarious position. A comeback win from behind at home to Olympiakos followed by a victory at Malmo has left them needing just a single point to guarantee their progression.

'The Old Lady' will have half an eye on top spot though and that will be achieved if they can win by a two goal margin. Massimiliano Allegri's side likely won't sit back and just play for the point they need as finishing first is a huge advantage. The men from Turin have already racked up five goals in two home Champions League fixtures this term and their three scorelines in Italy last year were 2-2, 2-2 and 3-1.

Atletico Madrid have already secured their place in the draw for the next round thanks to four victories from five outings. After coming within a whisker of lifting this trophy last season, Diego Simeone's players will want to right that wrong. A draw would guarantee the reigning La Liga champions top spot and that would ensure they avoided the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Chelsea in the last 16.

I can't see 'Los Colchoneros' keeping a clean sheet though as they are without central defender, Joo Miranda. Atletico are usually good for goals themselves as we have to go all the way back to August for the last time they failed to score away from home. Their two scorelines on the road in Group A thus far were 3-2 and 0-2, and last year their three away group games saw two reward under 2.5 layers.

I am not suggesting that this is going to be a goal-fest but under 2.5 is trading much shorter than it should. That's why, at around the 1.538/15 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Juventus v Atletico Madrid @ 1.538/15

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 330 pts
Returned: 345.77 pts
P/L: + 15.77 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)