Pacquiao expected to defeat unbeaten Algieri

On Saturday 22nd November, the WBO Welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao looks to defeat Chris Algieri and put an end to the American’s 20-fight unbeaten streak. Does Algieri's height and reach give him a big advantage, or will the 144lbs catch-weight favour the speed of Pacquiao?

Fight Statistics

Algieri has a five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage over Pacquiao, which should allow the American to control the ring. However, Algieri isn’t known for his power, with a KO % of just 40%, so expect Pacquiao to close his opponent down as he looks to walk through the challengers punches in order to close the distance.

The upcoming fight will be contested at a catch-weight of 144 pounds, even though it is for the WBO 147lb championship. This will favour Pacquiao's speed, as he looks to get in and out before the challenger has time to counter.

Manny Pacquiao

Name

Christopher Algieri

35

Age

30

Kibawe, Philippines

Birthplace

New York, USA

5ft 6.5” (1.69m)

Height

5ft 10” (1.78m)

67” (169cm)

Reach

72” (183cm)

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

56-5-2 (38 wins by KO)

Career Record

20-0-0 (8 wins by KO)

1.111

Odds

7.000

90.01%

Implied Probability

14.29%

Boxing upsets – how valuable is Algieri at 7.000?

Boxing's history is littered with underdogs defying the odds and stealing victory. Most notably in recent years, Miguel Cotto was at 2.750 when he beat Sergio Martinez (1.47), Marcos Maidana's odds were as long as 4.750 before winning on points against Adrien Broner (1.200), while Shawn Porter was at 4.96 against Devon Alexander (1.19).

But how much value is there in Algieri when he has been given a mere 14.29% chance of winning?

This isn’t the first time Algieri has had the odds stacked against him. Earlier this year he stunned the boxing world when he beat Ruslan Provodnikov on a split decision, which opened the way for him to fight Pacquiao.

The American was knocked down twice in the first round and had a swollen right eye, leading many to believe the fight was perilously close to being stopped in the opening minutes. However, Algieri fought on and threw a total of 993 punches, landing 288 (29%). Provodnikov in comparison connected with 26% of punches, but it was Algieri who was awarded a 114-112, 114-112, 109-117 split decision to become the new WBO Junior Welterweight champion.

For the fight with Pacquiao, Algieri opened at 9.000 with Pinnacle Sports but is now available at 7.000* to win. At the time of writing 88% of bets have been placed on the American, emphasising the market currently believes there is value backing the 30-year-old.

Is Pacquiao losing his punching power?

Manny Pacquiao is ranked the number four pound-for-pound boxer in the world and was long-rated as the best by ESPN, BoxRec and Sports Illustrated until his back-to-back defeats in 2012.

The Filipino has favoured the early finish throughout his career, winning 38 professional fights by knockout to date. Along the way he has knocked out some of boxing’s biggest names including Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto, and he will be looking to add Algieri to that impressive list on November 22nd.

However, Pacquiao hasn’t stopped an opponent since his scintillating fight with Cotto back in November 2009 - a TKO 55 seconds into the 12th round.

Has Pacquiao's punching power diminished in recent times, or will his strength and speed return when he enters the ring on November 22nd?

Could it go the distance?

Bettors will also be able to take advantage of the OVER/UNDER rounds market at Pinnacle Sports. This is an interesting proposition for bettors as Pacquiao has a huge advantage in terms of experience in 12-round fights.

Pacquiao has fought in 39 bouts, winning 32, whilst Algieri is preparing for just the second 12 round fight of his career.

What’s more, the American has never fought outside of his hometown, so travelling to The Venetian Macao in China where Pacquiao defeated Brandon Rios last year, also represents a whole new experience for “The King of New York.”

Pacquiao has won 62% of his 12-round career fights by knockout (24 of 39) - 92% of which have come inside 10 rounds. But as mentioned earlier, his punch power may be in decline. In his last 20 fights, Pacquiao has only won eight by knockout – the same as Algieri.

Pacquiao has also won nine of these 20 twenty fights when they have gone the distance, losing just two - against Timothy Bradley in June 2012 and rik Morales in March 2005 – on the judges cards. The data suggest the fight is more likely to go over the set mark, especially as Algieri has won 60% of his professional fights on points.

Bettors are advised to consider all of this information before betting on the winner of Pacquiao-Algieri on November 22nd. Will the Champion prove too much of a step-up for the challenger, or is there a huge upset on the horizon?

Click here to see the latest Pacquiao vs. Algieri betting odds.