Should politics sway your FIFA Ballon d’Or betting?

The 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or will be awarded in Zurich on 12th January 2015 to the the best individual player in world football for the past year. With the lines due to come down on January 8th, read our preview for an insight before placing your bets.

2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or: The Nominees

The FIFA Ballon d’Or started in 2010 after France Football’s Ballon d’Or and the FIFA World Player of the Year awards were merged. In October, FIFA revealed the shortlist for the 2014 Ballon d’Or; 20 men considered to have performed best throughout the year. Although the omissions of Luis Suarez, Andrea Pirlo, Robin van Persie and Luka Modric caused some controversy, the field has now been narrowed down to three – Lionel Messi, Manuel Neuer and Cristiano Ronaldo. Messi has won the Ballon d’Or three times already (from 2010-2012) with Ronaldo taking home the 2013 award earlier this year.

Lionel Messi: Records Galore

Lionel Messi had a disappointing 2013/14 campaign with Barcelona despite scoring 28 goals in La Liga. The Catalan giants missed out on the title because of a 1-1 draw at home to Atlético Madrid on the final day of the season and their Spanish compatriots also dumped them out of the UEFA Champions League at the quarter final stage.

However, Messi made up for that disappointment over the summer by captaining Argentina to the Final of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, where he scored four crucial goals along the way and picked up the Golden Ball. He has also ended 2014 by becoming the Spanish league’s all-time top goal scorer and the all-time top goal scorer in the UEFA Champions League, adding two more personal achievements to his overwhelming list.

Messi is available at 15.000* with Pinnacle Sports to win the Ballon d’Or for a fourth time, an implied probability of 6.67%, whilst you can also bet against him at odds of 1.041*.

Manuel Neuer: Goalkeepers & the 2014 FIFA World Cup

Manuel Neuer 5.390* is the second favourite for the 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or. He has been widely recognised as the best goalkeeper in world football for several years now and was awarded the Golden Glove during Germany’s 2014 FIFA World Cup success in Brazil. His domestic record also speaks for itself; Neuer is the only goalkeeper with over 100 appearances in the German Bundesliga to have conceded fewer goals (216) than appearances made (264).

An implied probability of 18.55% means he is considered more likely to pick up the coveted award than Messi, but only one goalkeeper has ever won it before – Lev Yashin in 1963. The odds are stacked against the Bayern Munich No.1, especially when you consider both Messi and Ronaldo are previous winners and forwards notorious for scoring goals.

Juventus captain Gianluigi Buffon, who is regarded as one of the finest keepers of all time, suggested: 

“perhaps a goalkeeper will win the Ballon d’Or when he helps his team become world champions by winning four games in a row on penalties and saving every spot-kick, that way no one can overlook him.”  Bettors can go against Manuel Neuer with odds of 1.172* - an implied probability of 85.32%.

Cristiano Ronaldo: Goals & Politics

Cristiano Ronaldo 1.222* is Pinnacle Sports’ clear favourite for the 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or with an 81.83% implied probability. It’s not hard to see why, the Portuguese forward was the top scorer in the 2013/14 La Liga campaign with 31 goals in 30 games. He was also instrumental in securing Real Madrid’s 10th UEFA Champions League trophy, scoring 17 times and setting a new record for the competition.

Ronaldo won the Ballon d’Or in 2013, although the subjective bias that goes into the awarding of the prize did not go undetected by third-placed Franck Ribery, who famously quoted:

“I won everything I could win with Bayern and individually. Ronaldo on the other hand did not win anything. I am not sad that I missed out, but it does hurt a bit. I deserved to win the Ballon d’Or. It wasn’t about football. It was a political decision.”

So how exactly does the voting work? The Ballon d’Or is awarded to the player with the most votes by a coach, a captain and a journalist from 209 associations around the world (627 votes). However, for the 2013 Ballon d’Or, only 505 people cast ballots: 170 captains, 170 coaches and 165 members of the media. This means 122 people did not register their vote - approximately 19.5% of the total - for reasons that are still unknown.

How much of an impact could politics have on who wins the 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or? Perhaps with Messi’s recent achievements fresh in the minds of voters or Neuer being nominated in a FIFA World Cup winning year, it won’t be as straight forward for Ronaldo as the odds suggest. You can bet against Ronaldo winning the 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or at 4.540* or an implied probability of 22.03%.

Click here to see the latest odds for the 2014 FIFA Ballon d’Or.