Stats suggest Federer lacks value on outright market for World Tour Finals

Ahead of the 2014 ATP World Tour Finals this preview delves into the important stats bettors should consider. Find out why five-time winner Rodger Federer may be overvalued, and why Wawrinka is expected to struggle.

The ATP World Tour Finals has a prize pool of $6,500,000, and comprises of the top eight singles and doubles players in the world.

With the huge prize money and 1500 ranking points available to the winner, player motivation will be very high despite the tournament being at the end of the season, so maximum effort from all contenders is virtually guaranteed.

The final qualifying event of the season, the Paris Masters, is currently being played, but five of the eight qualifiers are now known. With Andy Murray now qualified, it leaves Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, David Ferrer and Milos Raonic competing for three of the remaining four berths, with the unlucky player making up the numbers as an alternate. 

As the alternate has played fairly regularly in recent years, having knowledge of that player is also very useful, so this preview covers the nine singles players that will be taking to the courts in London.

Court conditions and statistics

Over the last three years, conditions at the World Tour Finals are slightly on the slow side, but nothing that should influence bettors in any significant way.  Between 2011 and 2013, there were 79.7% service holds, which is 0.5% below the ATP Indoor Hard average.

Taking statistics into account, Djokovic enjoys a significant advantage over Federer on Indoor Hard

Bettors will be interested to know that there was slight profit generated from blind-backing the favourite in all matches during the last three tournaments at the O2.  £188 was generated from £100 level stakes for a return on investment of 3.61%.  In these years, 78.8% of favourites won their matches with the biggest priced winning underdog being David Ferrer (5.53) against Andy Murray in 2011.

Looking deeper at the historical stats, it’s interesting to note that there are two names who have dominated the tour finale in the last decade. Roger Federer (5 titles) and Novak Djokovic (3 titles including the last two years) have had great World Tour Finals success, and both players are seeded as the top two this year, with appendicitis affecting the now-withdrawn Rafael Nadal.

However, whilst three of the last four finals featured the top two seeds, a mere five from 44 finals have contained both players since this tournament originated. Bearing this in mind, and with shock results, particularly in Grand Slams, being a feature of 2014, a Djokovic/Federer final is far from guaranteed, although unsurprisingly they are the leading contenders in the betting market.  Djokovic is currently priced at 2.260, while Federer is at 3.320 with Pinnacle Sports.

Players Indoor Hard court statistics (Last 2 seasons)

The following table assesses the 2-year Indoor Hard court statistics of the nine players in contention for the event, sorted by their surface win percentage.  Players in bold have guaranteed qualification after completion of the matches on the 30th October, 2014:-

Player

Matches

Won

Win %

Service Hold %

Break %

Combined %

Djokovic

17

16

94.1

89

27.9

116.9

Nishikori

20

18

90

83.8

33.7

117.5

Cilic

27

22

81.5

86.6

26

112.6

Murray

20

16

80

84.1

27.2

111.3

Ferrer

41

31

75.6

82.1

31.1

113.2

Federer

32

24

75

88

23.1

111.1

Berdych

33

23

69.7

89.6

20.7

110.3

Raonic

22

15

68.2

92.6

12.4

105

Wawrinka

17

8

47.1

81.9

18

99.9

Djokovic, Federer & Nishikori

Tournament favourite Djokovic leads the contenders on the surface with a superb 16-1 (94.1%) surface record over the last two years. The Serb’s only defeat on the surface came at the hands of Sam Querrey at the Paris Masters in October 2012, but he then immediately reeled off five straight wins at the Tour Finals the subsequent week - there was no rest week in 2012.

However, Kei Nishikori, who has yet to guarantee qualification, actually boasts a slightly better combined hold/break percentage, and also has the best percentage for breaking opponents as well on Indoor Hard, slightly above David Ferrer. With a win percentage of 90% from 20 surface matches in the last 24 months, the talented Japanese player could be a real threat as an underdog this year.

Readers will perhaps be surprised to see Roger Federer at 6th in the table with a 75% win rate. Three of the Swiss legend’s eight defeats came as favourite, to the currently injured Juan Martin Del Potro (twice) and Julien Benneteau. The remaining five came as underdog, three times to Djokovic, and once each to Nadal and Del Potro. With Federer also 6th ranked for hold/break statistics on the surface, his status as second favourite could certainly be questioned and there is potential he is overvalued.

The stats suggest there is little to separate the top six on this surface

Taking the above statistics into account, it is clear that top seed Djokovic enjoys a significant advantage over second seed Federer on Indoor Hard.

Overall there appears to be little to separate the top six in the sample with all having surface win percentages of over 75%, and combined hold/break percentages of over 111%.  This illustrates superbly why these players are the elite on the ATP Tour.

Murray & Wawrinka

Home favourite Andy Murray has qualified after a spate of recent successes. At the start of October, his qualification for this event was in severe doubt after an injury and form affected season, but the Scotsman has taken consecutive titles in Vienna and Valencia en route to a current 11 game winning streak.  Bettors will be interested to know that he’s lost just two of his last 22 matches, to Djokovic and Ferrer.

With Murray in superb form, he cannot be ruled out for this event, but history isn’t on the Scotsman’s side.  Murray has never made the final of this tournament, with two round robin exits and two defeats at the semi-final stage.

It’s evident from the statistics that there is one player who is likely to make up the numbers at the O2.  Stan Wawrinka’s frailties on Indoor Hard have been well documented in previous articles and the Swiss has won just eight of his 17 matches on the surface in the last 24 months, with a combined hold/break percentage below 100%.

The Swiss’ game also appears to be in a major slump currently, with just two victories in five tournaments (four defeats) since his US Open defeat to Nishikori.  Also worth noting is that those six matches since the US Open featured Wawrinka as a starting price favourite, with his biggest price being 1.611, against Gilles Simon in Shanghai. Last year’s semi-final showing will give the 2014 Australian Open champion hope, but statistics indicate he is likely to struggle this year.

It is highly likely that we will see a very competitive event this year and with the statistics mentioned in the preview considered as part of a balanced betting strategy, bettors can finish the 2014 season on a high with success at the World Tour Finals.

Click here for the latest ATP Tour Finals odds.