The Big Match Tactical View: Newcastle v Sunderland

Can Alan Pardew's side continue their fine home form?

Sunday's opening Premier League game - the Tyne-Wear derby - is always a great fixture. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle, while professional trader Alan Thompson provides the betting expertise.

Newcastle v Sunderland,
Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Newcastle 2.1411/10, Sunderland 4.03/1, The Draw 3.55/2

The Tyne-Wear derby remains one of the fiercest contests in the Premier League, and this is a game where tactics often take a back seat as the midfield battle descends into a bloodbath. Nevertheless, this should be an intriguing match, with favourites Newcastle in excellent home form but suffering from injury problems.

The good news for the Magpies is that goalkeeper Jack Alnwick has been passed fit despite sustaining a shoulder injury in midweek - although, of course, there's every chance he might struggle during the course of the game, and need to be replaced midway through. Indeed, that's exactly how Alnwick got his chance in the first place, coming on for Rob Elliot at half-time of the 2-0 win over Chelsea in the previous game at St James' Park. Seventeen-year-old Freddie Woodman is on standby.

The real problem is the lack of Moussa Sissoko. The Newcastle captain is perfect for that role connecting midfield and attack, and excels at driving forward on the break.

There's no obvious replacement in the Newcastle ranks, so Remy Cabella will move inside to play as the number ten. He's a clever, intelligent playmaker - but this isn't the game for invention and patience, it's about being physical and committed. Expect Lee Cattermole to put in a couple of early tackles, and let Cabella know what this game is all about.

Apart from these two positions, and despite having 11 players out injured, Pardew should be able to field the side which defeated Chelsea a fortnight ago. The big decision is upfront: should Alan Pardew play the hard-working, pacey Ayoze Perez, or the more assured player in front of goal, Papiss Cisse? Perez can be fielded out wide to allow Cisse to play as the number nine, but Pardew might be cautious, pack his midfield, and introduce a second striker after the break.

Gustavo Poyet, in comparison, has few injury worries and it would be a surprise to see significant changes from the side which drew 1-1 with West Ham last time out, with the 4-1-4-1 / 4-3-3 formation set to continue.

Poyet might consider beefing up his midfield, however. Using Jordi Gomez in the centre (alongside Cattermole and Sebastian Larsson) plus Conor Wickham and Adam Johnson on the flanks might not give Sunderland enough power and ball-winning ability in a game like this.

Jack Rodwell or Liam Bridcutt could come into the side, perhaps with Gomez moving left and Wickham making way, or even moving upfront to replace Jozy Altidore. Steven Fletcher is also an option.

Sunderland haven't won in their last six matches, and have collected ten draws from 16 games this season, an amazing record. They're unlikely to play pretty football here, and it might be about digging in and scrapping to pick up yet another draw.

Where are the key battle zones? Well, perhaps the most important player is Jack Colback, who will face his old club for the first time having made the controversial switch to Newcastle in the summer. He's been extremely impressive in recent weeks, and will be particularly determined to make an impact in this game. Colback is exactly what you want in a Tyne-Wear derby: a scrapper who's also capable of dealing with opposition pressure when in possession too, playing clever passes and easing past opposition tackles - expect him to be heavily involved.

Another issue is Sunderland's attack, and I struggle to see where their goals will come from. They lack a prolific striker, and Steven Taylor and Fabricio Coloccini have a good relationship at the back. Meanwhile, I think Paul Dummett will contain Johnson, and Daryl Janmaat will push back Sunderland's left-winger.

The away side might be relying on set-pieces and long-range strikes for their goal threat - and it will certainly be worth testing Alnwick, who made a big error in midweek and seems incredibly impetuous.

However, the ball is firmly in Newcastle's court here, and it's impossible to ignore the fact they've been drawing at half-time (0-0) and winning at full-time (by one goal) in their last four home matches. With a scrappy start likely here, and Pardew able to bring a second striker off the bench, that seems worth a back at 6.411/2 to me.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/Newcastle in Half Time/Full Time at 6.411/2

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

The 151st Tyne-Wear derby on Sunday will see Alan Pardew try and stop Sunderland claiming a hat-trick of wins at St James’ Park - they have won the last two here 3-0! You have to go back to August 2011 to find the Geordies' last win in this fixture and they haven’t won any of the last five derby games, home or away.

Newcastle United come into this having lost back-to-back games in north London, conceding eight goals in the process. To add insult to injury they may also have lost the services of their third choice goalkeeper Jak Alnwick who “allegedly” picked up a shoulder injury in the midweek defeat at White Hart Lane. While Newcastle are in discussion with the Premier League over the possibility of making an emergency loan signing, the next available goalkeeper for the home side would be 17-year-old Freddie Woodman.

Sunderland, on the other hand, don’t have any such injury or suspension worries, but they just can’t seem to get three points. The Black Cats have only won two games this season but they have drawn a staggering ten of their 16 starts. Only the top three Chelsea (1), Manchester United (3) and Manchester City (2) have lost fewer games than Gus Poyet’s side.

While the Magpies' home form is good - their only defeat coming against Manchester City - they tend to leave it late, only three of the 18 goals witnessed at St James’ Park this season have come before half-time. Sunderland have failed to find the net in five of their last six away games, so if there are to be goals in this game they look like coming in the second half.

I won’t be placing my bet until I see the Newcastle team sheet, but, on the assumption that Newcastle don’t start with Woodman in goal, I will be backing 0-0 @ 3.0 in the half time correct score market and also 2nd Half @ 2.25 in the Half with Most Goals market.