Against All Odds: Goal backers to have Hearts broken

It's Christmas party time

The rest of the country may be winding down for the festive period but Paul Robinson is busy scouring the globe for value and he believes he's found some in Scotland's Championship this evening.

Cowdenbeath v Hearts
Tuesday December 23, 19:45 GMT

After narrowly avoiding relegation from this division last season, Cowdenbeath aren't exactly doing much better this time around. With 16 matches gone they sit third from bottom and even if they win their game in hand tonight, they'll still stay in eighth place.

It's the goal-side of things we're focusing on here though and it's now nine outings since Jimmy Nicholl's men have found the net on more than one occasion. In fact, the Fife based club scored just five times during that period. They do have a leaky defence, but it is worth noting that three of their last four have not only rewarded over 2.5 layers, but over 1.5 layers as well.

Hearts are riding high at the top of the table following their relegation from the top flight last season. They already have a nine point advantage over Rangers and that would extend to 12 if they win their game in hand this evening.

The key to their success has been at the back as with eight scored, they are conceding an average of 0.5 goals per match. Robbie Neilson's side have had three of their last five on the road finish with two goals or fewer and that includes a 0-0 at Dumbarton.

This should be a relatively straightforward away win with a likely clean sheet to boot. I doubt Hearts will run away with it though, so with over 2.5 goals trading as low as 1.618/13, I have to make it my lay of the day
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Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Cowdebeath v Hearts @ 1.618/13

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 343 pts
Returned: 359.39 pts
P/L: + 16.39 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)