Bundesliga Betting: Stuttgart's surge set to continue

Huub Stevens is dragging Stuttgart out of trouble

It's the final Bundesliga weekend of 2014, and after securing 4/4 winners in midweek, Kevin Hatchard's hoping to end the year in style.

Stuttgart v Paderborn
Saturday December 20, 14:30

When Armin Veh quit Stuttgart, there were some who said he had an impossible job, and that he hadn't been furnished with a squad capable of competing in Germany's top flight. Veh's replacement Huub Stevens is making a mockery of those claims, as he has led the Swabians to two wins in three games since taking charge. 

Those wins came at fellow strugglers Freiburg and Hamburg, and VfB have climbed out of the dropzone. Another victory against Paderborn would give Stuttgart a bit of breathing space going into the winter break.

The win at Hamburg was especially impressive, as Stuttgart had to dig in and defend a 1-0 lead with ten men from the 53rd-minute onwards, after Georg Neidermeier had been sent off. Skipper Christian Gentner remarked afterwards that the team "fought hard all the way through the match", the hallmark of a Huub Stevens side.

I've suggested a few times recently that Paderborn have run out of steam a touch, and they went down 2-1 at home to Schalke in midweek. Andre Breitenreiter's men are doubtless looking forward to the "winterpause", as they have gone six matches without a win. 

Paderborn have particularly struggled in their last few away games - they were soundly beaten 3-0 at Augsburg, thumped 4-0 at Werder Bremen, and they only drew 1-1 at Wolfsburg thanks to awful refereeing and a virtuoso display from keeper Lukas Kruse.

Stuttgart have their confidence back, and have been well drilled by Stevens since the Dutchman's return. Against a struggling Paderborn side, I think 1.910/11 is a good price for the home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Stuttgart to win at 1.910/11

Schalke v Hamburg
Saturday December 20, 14:30

Every time Hamburg seem as though they've got their act together, they shoot themselves in the foot. Despite playing against the Bundesliga's leakiest defence and having a man advantage for 37 minutes, HSV couldn't score in midweek, and they lost 1-0 to Stuttgart. 

Despite the presence of some talented attacking players in the Redshorts' line-up, Hamburg have far and away the worst attacking record in the division. They have netted a frankly pathetic nine goals in 16 games - Opta tell us only three teams in Bundesliga history have had a worse record at this stage - and they are just a point above the bottom three. If it wasn't for the defensive improvements that coach Joe Zinnbauer has made, the faded northern giants would be in deep trouble.

Hamburg have had most of their success at home this term, and they have won just of their last 19 away games. I don't expect that record to improve this weekend against Schalke, especially as HSV have lost five of their last six games against the men from the Ruhr.

Schalke threw in a horror show in their last home game against FC Cologne, but their midweek win at Paderborn got them back on track. S04 have won six of their nine Bundesliga games since Roberto Di Matteo took the helm, and they have the attacking talent to blow Hamburg away. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has scored in each of his last six games against Hamburg, while Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting has been involved in eight goals in his last five league appearances.

Recommended Bet
Back Schalke to win at 1.8810/11

Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday December 20, 14:30

Given that we're approaching Christmas, it's apt that Eintracht Frankfurt are the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to overs bets. On Wednesday our Over 3.5 Goals bet landed by half-time of their game against Hertha Berlin, which turned out to be an extraordinary 4-4 draw. Talismanic striker Alex Meier scored twice in stoppage-time to drag his side back from 4-2 down.

Incredibly, 11 of Frankfurt's 16 Bundesliga games this season have featured four goals or more, and the entertainment should continue against Bayer Leverkusen. Roger Schmidt's men have reined themselves in of late, but seven of their league matches have featured four goals or more. Bayer have the attacking weapons to exploit the huge gaps in the Frankfurt defence, but they often switch off at the back themselves, and they may struggle to contain Meier and his strike partner Haris Seferovic.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.26/5  

Mainz v Bayern Munich
Friday December 19, 19:30
Live on ESPN

Pep Guardiola's managerial career is notable for its pursuit of perfection at all times, and his Bayern Munich side have come pretty damn close to that ideal during the Hinrunde. The champions have won 13 of their 16 league matches, drawing the other three. They have bashed in 39 goals, and conceded just three. The summer signing of Xabi Alonso has proved to be an inspired move, and after a slow start stellar acquisition Robert Lewandowski has started to show what he's really capable of.

Bayern have conceded just one goal in their seven away games this term, and I expect that defence to stay strong against a Mainz side that has lost its way after an encouraging start. I suggested pre-season that without Thomas Tuchel at the helm, Die Nullfunfer could be surprise relegation candidates, and they are just three points above the bottom three after an eight-match winless run.

Bayern should stroll this against a side low on confidence. At time of writing, Bayern to win to nil was trading at 2.01/1, and that's a generous price for a Bayern side that has kept clean sheets in eight of the last nine outings.

Recommended Bet
Back Bayern to win to nil at 2.01/1

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday December 20, 14:30

At the start of the season, absolutely no-one would've predicted that this would be a clash between two of the clubs in the relegation zone. Borussia Dortmund failed to escape the bottom three in midweek, as they conceded a late equaliser in a thrilling 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg. Veteran midfielder Sebastian Kehl was at fault for the goal, losing Naldo and allowing the Brazilian a free header, which he gleefully scored from.

There were positives for BVB to take from the game, and one of them was the stellar performance of Italy striker Ciro Immobile. At long last he recaptured the form that saw him finish top of the Serie A goalscoring charts with Torino last season. He was direct, he made intelligent runs, and he scored a stunning 20-yard goal to make it 2-1. This may well have been his watershed moment.

Werder have made big strides under new coach Viktor Skripnik, but they folded badly in midweek, as they were thrashed 4-1 at Borussia Monchengladbach. I never thought I'd write this, but the absence of Sebastian Prodl has been keenly felt - since the Austrian limped out of the 5- 2 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt, Werder have shipped 12 goals in just over 200 minutes of football.

Werder are unbeaten at home under Skripnik, and therefore laying BVB at 1.538/15 has appeal, but I'm just not confident enough in the outcome of the match. What I am sure of is that a rejuvenated Immobile will get chances against a dreadful Werder defence, so back him to score at any time at 2.35/4.

Recommended Bet
Back Ciro Immobile to score at 2.35/4 (sportsbook product)  

Kevin will be commentating on Mainz v Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund and Freiburg v Hannover for TuneIn with talkSPORT. For live radio commentary search "Bundesliga English on the TuneIn app or website. 

You can follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinhatchard

2014/15 Bundesliga P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 65

Points Returned: 67.48

P/L: +2.48 points