Liverpool v Arsenal: Gunners to lose their nerve yet again

Alexis Sanchez is a good price to score anytime

Two contenders for the top four go head-to-head at Anfield this Sunday and, although Kevin Hatchard concedes that both teams are well below their best, he thinks the Gunners' mental weakness could prove crucial...

Liverpool v Arsenal
Sunday December 20, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool

Wednesday's League Cup win at Bournemouth was only a small step in the right direction, but it was a welcome one for Liverpool, given that their season has largely been an exercise in going backwards. Brendan Rodgers waxed lyrical about his side's attacking play in the 3-1 victory, and was right to do so, although it needs to be stressed that his players were up against a Championship outfit who hadn't picked their strongest side.

The high tempo of Liverpool's play - an ingredient that has been missing for much of the campaign - made a rare return, and Raheem Sterling will have boosted his confidence with a brace. Lazar Markovic scored a fine goal, and at last the former Benfica man may be about to prove he's a decent player. At present everyone thinks I'm some sort of crazed hipster for raving about him pre-season.

Liverpool's defensive frailties remain, and centre-back Dejan Lovren looks even shakier than usual in a back three. Behind the defence, keeper Brad Jones perpetually plays with the air of a man that is on the run from the authorities, and could be arrested at any time. That said, Liverpool's defending at Anfield has been more solid than it's been on their travels. Only elite clubs like Real Madrid, Chelsea and...erm...Middlesbrough, have scored more than once against Rodgers' men on home soil.

Liverpool have even kept clean sheets in three of their last six home games, although they were against Stoke, Hull and Sunderland, who can hardly be considered as attacking powerhouses.

Lovren could miss the game with a groin injury, and given his awful form that could be a boost to Liverpool. Rodgers' team selection this season has resembled a man arbitrarily picking names out of a hat, but I suspect Markovic may be used alongside Sterling to expose Arsenal's lack of pace at the heart of defence. Jones is expected to keep his place in goal, while Mario Balotelli is suspended after his Twitter shenanigans.

Arsenal

I'm surprised that Punxsutawney Phil hasn't been spotted at The Emirates, as Arsenal's footballing existence is just one big remake of Groundhog Day. At the start of every season, Arsene Wenger gives the footballing world a cheery smile, ignores the fact that a destructive central midfielder and a commanding centre-back would turn his side into title contenders, and signs a completely different type of player. Arsenal then suffer their traditional glut of injuries, and fall behind.

So here we are, with the Gunners 13 points off the title pace, and two adrift of the top four. At least the luxury player they did sign in the summer has been sensational - Alexis Sanchez (who turned down Liverpool) has had a hand in 19 goals in all competitons, bagging 13 of them himself. The pocket rocket has carried the team in some games, and one wonders what the effect might have been had the Chilean headed to Merseyside instead of north London.

Arsenal's recent form is pretty good, with five wins in six games in all competitions. However, they have been patchy at best on their travels. Wenger's men have won five of their 12 away games, but they have lost four, and they have come up short in games against elite sides (Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund).

The Gunners will give late fitness tests to Nacho Monreal, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. They still have a slew of key players out, with Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Laurent Koscielny and Mesut Ozil on the sidelines.

Match Odds

Liverpool won this fixture 5-1 last season, but we can throw that result out of the window right now. The Reds are a shadow of the side they were now that Luis Suarez has left and Daniel Sturridge has been shackled to the treatment table. However, that result was one of a series of abject failures by Arsenal in big away games. Last season they also lost 6-0 at Chelsea, 3-0 at Everton and 6-3 at Manchester City.

Although those results were last season, there were echoes of them in this season's reverses at Stamford Bridge and Signal Iduna Park, as well the feeble 3-2 loss at Stoke in which they were 3-0 down at half-time.

Even though Anfield has generally been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent seasons (one defeat in seven), I can't support them as slight favourites at 2.6613/8. They come up short too often in intimidating atmospheres, and they have key players out. Perverse as it sounds, Liverpool actually showed some signs of life in last week's 3-0 defeat at United, and the Bournemouth win will have given them a fillip. I'll cautiously back the hosts Draw No Bet at 2.021/1.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

There's a case to be made for an unders bet at 2.226/5, as five of Liverpool's eight home games in the Premier League have featured fewer than three goals. That said, I don't trust either defence, and Liverpool will have to try and play this game at a high tempo. If they sit back and try to dictate like they failed to do against Basel in the Champions League, they'll be picked apart. I think there'll be goals, and 1.784/5 is a fair price, given that seven of Arsenal's last ten games have featured three goals or more.

To Score

With the numbers that Alexis Sanchez has been putting up, I'm amazed that he is available at 2.526/4 in the To Score market. He will be Arsenal's biggest offensive weapon, and I can see him giving Martin Skrtel and Kolo Toure a torrid time.

Raheem Sterling scored twice in last season's 5-1 win, and he'll have a spring in his step after his return to the scoresheet against Bournemouth. He's also worth a dart at 2.77/4.

Recommended Bets
Back Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.021/1
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.784/5
Back Alexis Sanchez to score at 2.526/4