Research highlights once a tennis player reaches 30 they begin to deteriorate physically. With 15 players over 30 in the ATP top 50, live bettors should be interested to know how they perform the longer a game goes on.
A previous article (read it here) looked at the success of ATP veterans and surprisingly found they generally peak between the ages of 30 and 32.
For logical reasons some bettors believe players over 30 are more likely to struggle as the game goes on. However, it can also be argued that these veterans are able to conserve energy better through a more levelheaded mentality, gained from experience – knowing when to 'tank' games when they have little chance of winning, in preparation to preserve energy for key situations.
The following table shows the ATP top 50 veterans' 2014 set records for best of three matches on the main tour (Data does not include qualifiers):
Player
Rank
Age
1st Set Win %
2nd Set Win %
3rd Set Win %
Federer
2
33
87.27
70.91
76.19
Ferrer
19
32
67.19
64.06
60
Lopez
14
33
48.08
50
82.35
Robredo
17
32
63.64
58.18
41.18
Kohlschreiber
24
31
63.46
62.75
41.18
Benneteau
25
32
57.14
52.27
58.82
Karlovic
27
35
52.63
56.36
61.11
Verdasco
33
31
59.46
58.33
50
Garcia-Lopez
36
31
40.48
52.38
52.17
Lu
38
31
58.97
57.89
58.33
Becker
40
33
47.92
54.17
61.11
Seppi
45
30
35.71
52.38
47.37
Muller
47
31
57.14
28.57
50
Youzhny
48
32
61.76
42.42
22.22
Hewitt
50
33
48.28
53.57
81.82
Average
57.56
56.62
57.32
The ATP veterans were slightly stronger in set one (57.56% win percentage) than any other. The sample saw these matches go to a deciding set 37.56% of the time - around 4% higher than the ATP mean. Therefore despite the set win percentages being similar, older players appear to struggle with consistency from set-to-set, which ultimately results in playing more games.
Verdasco, Hewitt, Lopez & Federer
Leading the way in this respect was Fernando Verdasco. The Spaniard, previously a mainstay of the top ten, has declined in recent years and is becoming increasingly inconsistent. Verdasco played 37 sampled matches in 2014, with 20 going to a deciding set (54.05%). This is close to 20% above the ATP mean and illustrates that backing Verdasco to win matches ‘-1.5 sets’ on the set handicap should be avoided.
Lleyton Hewitt also plays a lot of deciding sets. He participated in 11 final sets from his 29 matches, however this trend has been apparent throughout his career. The Australian, coming towards the end of his career at 33, has superb fighting qualities though, and boasted nine wins from those 11 deciding sets. In addition, Hewitt has an excellent career record in deciders (as well as when a set down in best of three matches) so bettors could consider him to win on the 'over x games' market.
Slightly edging Hewitt as the best veteran in deciding sets was Feliciano Lopez. The Spaniard had an excellent 2014, raising his ranking to 14, with his grass court season being a particular highlight. The foundation of this rise was 14 wins in 17 deciders (82.4%) – a statistic which is truly amazing when compared to his first and second set stats - he won below 50% for sets 1 & 2 combined. This statistic could also indicate he will be strong in the latter stages of Grand Slam matches (sets four and five), which is very useful information for bettors.
Whilst Roger Federer’s deciding set win percentage (76.19%) was third on the list, it’s not a hugely impressive statistic given that he won 87.27% of first sets. Furthermore, the Swiss legend played 21 deciding sets from 55 matches (38.2%), which is above the ATP mean, and very high for an elite player. With Federer's performance likely to decline at the age of 33, bettors may find value selectively backing opponents ‘+1.5 sets’ on the spread.
Players declining in the final set
Despite several veterans performing well in deciding sets, this was not the case for all players in the sample. David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Mikhail Youzhny and the previously mentioned Verdasco all suffered a drop in performance the longer a game went on. Something very interesting for live bettors to consider, especially when one of these players take a 1-0 set lead.
Youzhny in particular suffered badly as matches lengthened. The 32-year-old Russian, whose 2014 season was riddled with injuries and inconsistency, won a superb 61.76% of first sets (ranking him 5/15), 42.42% of second sets (14/15) and 22.22% of deciding sets (15/15). It is clear that Youzhny cannot maintain the level of play he starts with, and suffers badly the longer the game goes on.
Ferrer, whose ranking dropped to 10th during 2014, looks to be another player in decline and with the Spaniard’s fitness getting him through so many tight matches in the past, a physical deterioration would see him struggle further. This is likely to be the case over the next couple of seasons.
Despite the combined set statistics showing the players are quite consistent from set to set, individual player tendencies were far from dependable, and assessing individual players while looking for early trends based on decline, would provide bettors with numerous betting angles.
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий