Do soccer managers make a difference as the final whistle approaches?

Once Alex Ferguson retired, so did the phrase 'Fergie Time'. This article investigates how top teams perform in the late stages of Premier League games, and looks at whether or not managers make a difference as the final whistle approaches? Something live bettors should be interested in.

What was 'Fergie Time'?

The retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson from football management, not only coincided with the decline of Manchester United as a credible title contender, but also the demise of 'Fergie Time' during which United typically scored crucial goals late in a game.

One example came in the 2009/10 Manchester derby, when Michael Owen scored 5:28 minutes into a minimum of four minutes of added time. The final whistle was blown 6:58 minutes after the 90th minute was reached.

A single event perhaps, but the broad evidence for United’s preferential treatment does appear compelling. However, if we examine the timeframe of the match more closely, this conclusion is much less justified.

United were especially dangerous under Ferguson after the 80th minute

Man City equalised a few seconds before the 90th minute was reached, celebrations lasted nearly a minute. United then substituted Anderson for Michael Carrick two minutes into added time. So referee Martin Atkinson, who decided to play a minimum of four extra minutes, was justified in extending this to allow for these events.

Even if the referee intended to play precisely four minutes of added time, the additional injury time stoppages were enough to conceivably make Owen’s strike the final kick of the game. As a result the final period of play following Owen’s celebration was only beneficial to City. As often happens, the narrative isn’t completely supported by the events of the day.

Individual grievances can cloud the wider reality, but just as superior sides gain more penalties because they invite more frequent challenges in the box, better teams may legitimately be given more added time because opponents waste time from favourable positions.

Fergie time, possibly first coined by The Guardian would not have become a phenomenon if United were not so adept at making good use of time in the later stages of a contest.

How a mangers risk aversion can influence a game late on

Excellent teams share the same trait; they tend to outscore their opponents in the later stages of a game, when scoring is more prolific. However, Sir Alex’s Manchester United excelled more than most.

How top teams performed after the 80th minute in the EPL (2007-2013)

Team

Points per Game after 80 mins

PPG Full Time

% Change

Man Utd

2.11

2.28

7.9

Arsenal

1.82

1.93

6.3

Chelsea

2.01

2.03

1.1

Man City

1.77

1.8

1.5

Liverpool

1.69

1.74

2.9

United were especially dangerous under Ferguson after the 80th minute. Despite having the best points per game average after 80 minutes, they were not satisfied, and invariably improved on their position in the final minutes.

By turning potential draws into wins and losses into draws or wins, they increased the number of points they were gaining after 80 minutes by nearly 8%. More impressively they did this every season from 2007/08 until Ferguson’s retirement at the end of the 2012-13 season.

Only Arsenal came close to matching this, but were inconsistent, some seasons dropping net points in a game’s later stages. United’s remaining peers appeared to take a less aggressive late game approach, aimed more at protecting the points they had already made or were less able to turn around losing situations.

There is unlikely to be a single reason for United outperforming the normal late game expectation. Ferguson may have taken more risks than his contemporaries, or worked on specific late game scenarios on the training field.

T-Cup or 'thinking creatively under pressure' was a cornerstone of Sir Clive Woodward’s successful 2003 Rugby World Cup campaign, which culminated in Jonny Wilkinson’s last minute winning drop goal following a series of orchestrated team moves.

It is to be expected that Sir Alex also devised training ground routines that prepared his team to maximise their performance under the severest time constraints.

United’s late game performance may illustrate the impact a manager has to a team’s results

In addition, the strength of United’s bench exceeded most others. In Ferguson’s final season, he could call on the likes of Javier Hernandez, Danny Welbeck and veteran Ryan Giggs.

Two of United’s most memorable injury time goals came against Bayern Munich in the 1999 UEFA Champions League final success.  Both Teddy Sheringham and Ole Solskjaer came off the bench to score from consecutive corners.

Rather than simply describing a historical footnote, United’s late game performance may illustrate the impact a manager has to a team’s results. Seeking wins by balancing risk and reward, along with having the playing staff to implement a manager’s ambition, can set teams apart.

United without Ferguson

United have often confounded so called advanced statistics, which highlight the side as positive outliers, especially when using either shots or goals to estimate expected league points.

Unfairly, in small sample sizes this over achievement has been dismissed as luck or random variation, even when the trait has been persistent for multiple seasons. Bettors should not neglect the input from the Premier League's most successful manager.

A side can be elevated to greater or lesser heights by random factors, but a persistently 'lucky' or unlucky manager may be doing something that his peers are not.

Post Sir Alex, United under David Moyes, Ryan Giggs and now Louis van Gaal, have an indifferent record in the later stages of a game. United had 88 potential points after 80 minutes of games, but this has fallen by 9% to 80 points by full time.

This can be taken as a sign that United had been riding a wave of unsustainable luck, although a much more credible explanation should allow for the absence of Ferguson and the differing aversion to risk of his successors.

All top managers have received their share of 'Fergie Time' over the seasons, probably justifiably. But only Fergie may have known how to make the best use of it. Live bettors should profile managers to gain an insight into how their respective team may perform as the final whistle approaches.