понедельник, 29 декабря 2014 г.

Premier League Weekend Review: Battling Burnley can keep on running to safety

Sean Dyche has got plenty to be pleased about

While other managers moaned about the Christmas fixture list, Burnley's Sean Dyche got on with it and his players showed it was possible to handle two games in 48 hours. Ralph Ellis says it augurs well for their fight to escape relegation...

There's a huge division among football folk about the value of statistics. There are clubs who employ fleets of analysts to pore over running data and passing percentages and then decide which players they should buy. And there are the old school men who insist the only judgement that counts is the one made through experienced eyes.

They are probably both right. While sports like athletics can be measured in terms of how far, how fast or how high, football is far more an art than a science. But there are times when the stats can reinforce the message that your eyes are telling you.

And that is certainly true of Burnley who have reached the half way mark of the Premier League season with far more chance of surviving than most people - including myself - ever gave them.

The EA Sports running data of the Christmas games tells a fascinating story about the work ethic in the dressing room at Turf Moor. Collectively, on Boxing Day, Burnley's players ran a total of 74.2 miles as they went down unluckily by a single goal to Liverpool.

Two days later, while almost every other manager in the top division was moaning about the unfair demands placed on players to appear twice in 48 hours, Sean Dyche's team went to the champions Manchester City. It was the sort of tough fixture in which some lower clubs might have taken the chance to make a host of changes to rest top players for a New Year's Day trip to Newcastle.

Not down-to-earth Dyche, though. He picked an unchanged team, then watched them run further and faster (a total of 74.5 miles) to fight back from 2-0 down to earn a point. Midfielder George Boyd, who had topped the Premier League running stats on Boxing Day with 8.1 miles, did exactly the same distance again.

Back in July when Burnley were trawling through the bargain basements to spend only a fraction of the Premier League millions they had just earned by gaining promotion, I wrote that the lack of quality would kill them. It couldn't be possible to last in the modern top flight on industry and effort alone.

I'm beginning to wonder if I was wrong, and if laying Burnley while they are 1.538/15 favourites for relegation could be the smartest move as the January window prepares to open.

While other clubs are getting into panic mode - Palace have just sacked Neil Warnock, West Brom might follow the same lead with Alan Irvine - Burnley are beautifully stable. They know their plan, they trust their manager, and their players know their jobs.

Danny Ings and Ashley Barnes have both shown evidence that they are adapting to the demands of a higher division when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net. Sam Vokes, who had hit 20 in the Championship by March last year before getting injured, is just returning to action. And in Boyd they have the top division's answer to Forrest Gump.  His best is currently 8.29 miles in 90 minutes, unmatched by any other Premier League player.

With half a season to go Burnley can get better, and their belief and willingness to fight together for lost causes might just make up for the lack of star names. The stats say so, and the eyes are beginning to agree.

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