This tennis betting article looks at whether or not WTA tennis players' performances differ depending on what time of the season the tournament is played.
The last week of the 2014 season was notable for one thing – severe underperformance of favourites. Favourites had performed strongly in the several weeks prior to the final week in the WTA calendar, but in the final week’s tournaments in Luxembourg and Moscow, backers of favourites were likely to have taken a huge hit to their bankroll.
Favourites underperform in season finale
The following table illustrates the records of WTA favourites in Luxembourg and Moscow (final week of the 2014 season)
Odds
Win %
Win 2-0 %
Won at least 1 set %
Lost 2-0 %
2-0
2-1
1-2
0-2
3 set %
<1.25
60
40
60
40
2
1
0
2
20
1.25-1.49
60
50
70
30
10
2
2
6
20
1.50-1.75
37.5
37.5
81.25
18.75
6
0
7
3
43.75
1.76-1.99
57.14
35.71
64.29
35.71
5
3
1
5
28.57
Overall
52.73
41.82
70.91
29.09
23
6
10
16
29.09
Bettors should find this data very revealing. Firstly, the overall win percentage for favourites is incredibly low at 52.73% - around 16% below the standard WTA favourite win percentage.
Furthermore, the 2-0 win favourite percentage is down around 8% at 41.82%. This highlights favourites not only failed to win as many matches as they should, but also failed to dominate opponents in straight sets.
Adding to this failure from favourites in the last week of the season, they managed to win at least a set on 70.91% of matches, down around about 10% from seasonal figures. Favourites also suffered 2-0 defeats 29.09% of the time, which is 11% higher than average.
WTA favourites clearly have very little interest in the final week of the season
Should this data be replicated throughout a bigger sample, we can assume that WTA favourites clearly have very little interest in the final week of the season, and should be opposed in almost all cases. With underdogs winning 2-0 in 16 out of 55 matches, backing underdogs to win in straight sets would have produced stellar returns.
Pinpointing an exact reason for this is difficult however, but it is likely that players are not as focussed, and a long season may have taken its toll on their bodies. Underdogs – who may have played less main tour WTA matches – may well find it easier to motivate themselves for what is effectively a ‘cup final’ against a much more illustrious opponent.
By including the above data it is possible to compare these statistics to the final three weeks of the 2014 WTA season (tournaments from the China Open in Beijing onwards) to see if the trend is longer than expected:
Odds
Win %
Win 2-0 %
Won at least 1 set %
Lost 2-0 %
2-0
2-1
1-2
0-2
3 set %
<1.25
85.71
67.86
89.29
10.71
19
5
1
3
21.43
1.25-1.49
69.33
52
80
20
39
13
8
15
28
1.50-1.75
58.93
44.64
85.71
14.29
25
8
15
8
41.07
1.76-1.99
64.71
44.12
82.35
17.65
15
7
6
6
38.24
Overall
67.88
50.78
83.42
16.58
98
33
30
32
32.64
Here we can see a huge jump in favourite success, with them winning more matches, more in straight sets, and losing 2-0 much less often. In addition, the percentage of matches going three sets also rose from 29.09% to 32.64%, indicating that more fight was being shown by players when they lost the first set. Backing favourites blindly generated a -1.30% return on investment, which is almost exactly the expectation for a blind-backed scenario.
However, what is perhaps most intriguing is the high percentage of players priced between 1.25 and 1.49 lost in straight sets. This was also the case in the last week of the season and further research from bettors, assessing previous year’s data, would be recommended to see if this trend continued.
Market harder to judge at the start of the season
Moving forward to the start of the 2015 season, bettors will find it useful to compare the start of the 2014 data to the end of 2014. The following table illustrates the records of favourites in the first four weeks of the WTA calendar – the two weeks of Australian Open warm-up events, and the Australian Open itself:
Odds
Win %
Win 2-0 %
Won at least 1 set %
Lost 2-0 %
2-0
2-1
1-2
0-2
3 set %
<1.25
89.04
64.38
94.52
5.48
47
18
4
4
30.14
1.25-1.49
68.49
46.58
80.82
19.18
34
16
9
14
34.25
1.50-1.75
60
41.25
70
30
33
15
8
24
28.75
1.76-1.99
60.53
36.84
68.42
31.58
14
9
3
12
31.58
Overall
70.45
48.48
79.55
20.45
128
58
24
54
31.06
It is clear that the dynamics of early season matches are different to the end of the season. Favourites won around 2% more compared to the final three weeks of the season, and backing them blindly produced marginally better returns of -0.57%.
However, at the start of the year, favourites won in straight sets slightly less, at a shade under 50%. With the vast majority of players likely to start the season fresh and full of enthusiasm, this is fairly logical, with more fight being displayed from underdogs when a set down, as opposed to later in the season.
It is clear that the dynamics of early season matches are different to the end of the season
Correct score bettors should be interested to know that favourites lost 2-0 slightly more than at the end of the season. The reason for this is far less obvious, although a possible explanation could be that matches are harder to price at the start of the season, with no recent form to guide oddsmakers.
For example, a run of bad form at the end of the season could be down to an injury that has cleared up in the off-season, or a young player may benefit from extended rest, enabling them to work, and improve, on their game on the practice courts.
Bettors should also focus on the ratio of 2-1 victories for favourites. In the first month of the 2014 season, they won a deciding set on 58/82 occasions (70.73%), which is very high compared to the final week of the 2014 season (6/16 = 37.50%) and the final three weeks of the 2014 season (33/63 = 52.38%). Backing favourites to win by this scoreline, and focusing on in-play opportunities based on this data, is recommended, as part of a balanced betting strategy.
This data superbly illustrates that all weeks, and months, of the Tennis season are not created equally. Bettors would be well advised to analyse these conditions and take them into account before placing their bets.
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