Will Cormier topple champion Jones?

On January 3rd, 2015, Jon “Bones” Jones, the number one-ranked pound-for-pound MMA fighter in the world, defends his light heavyweight title against Daniel Cormier in what many are calling the most-anticipated fight of his career. Below, we look at why the build-up has been so stratospheric, and where you might find value betting on the fight.

A historic champion

At just 27, Jones has rewritten the UFC’s record books, with the longest championship reign in light-heavyweight history (by number of defences). It’s not just the wins he’s piled up though; it’s the dominance with which he’s defined his legacy.

Jones is 20-1 for his career, the one loss by disqualification while administering an epic beating on Matt Hamill. The result of that dominance on betting? Have a look at the closing odds during his title reign:

Date

Opponent

Opening Odds

Closing Odds

Result

24/09/2011

Rampage Jackson

1.27

1.19

W-Sub, Rd4

10/12/2011

Lyoto Machida

1.28

1.19

W-Sub, Rd2

21/04/2012

Rashad Evans

1.20

1.18

W-Decision

22/09/2012

Vitor Belfort

1.11

1.12

W-Sub, Rd4

27/04/2013

Chael Sonnen

1.12

1.12

W-TKO, Rd1

21/09/2013

Alexander Gustafsson

1.17

1.14

W-Decision

26/04/2014

Glover Teixeira

1.18

1.21

W-Decision

Ridiculous

Note that generally, markets don’t move against Jones by much. More on this in a bit.

Of the three decisions, two were thoroughly dominant performances (the Gustafsson match was the exception). Simply, we may be talking about the greatest fighter of all time. So, why then is Daniel Cormier more expensive right now than any Jones opponent since Steffan Bonnar, Jones’ second UFC fight, in 2009?

We’ll get to Cormier’s resume in a moment, but first, I’ll mention the brand of recency bias mentioned in this article working against Jones’ price.

The Gustafsson fight, which many felt ended with a questionable judges’ decision, still looms large in the minds of fight fans. While Jones was dominant against Teixeira, he still failed to finish the Brazilian. On top of that, it was Jones who pulled out of the originally planned August 12th date with Cormier, citing a leg injury. That’s made for a lot of build-up time.

One last note on Jones: he’s become demonstrably more conservative in his time as champ, knowing that the Nike endorsements and everything else goes away if he loses the belt. That may have played into his withdrawal decision in August; it also tells you that if he’s fighting, he’s healthy.

A challenger for the ages?

Daniel Cormier has never lost an MMA match, despite being undersized for a light-heavyweight (He stands 5’11” with a 72” wingspan, compared to Jones’ 6’4” and 84.5” reach) and having fought most of his career against far larger men in the heavyweight division.

A teammate of reigning champion Cain Velazquez, Cormier reportedly repeatedly refused the opportunity to fight his friend, leading to a massive weight cut over the last year that’s allowed him to fight at 205 lbs.

If the injury layoff had an effect, it may have been to Cormier’s advantage; with the kind of weight he lost, the extra half-year acclimatization time could prove valuable.

Cormier’s 15-0 record has gone through a number of recognizable names, like Dan Henderson, Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson and Antonio Silva, but it can be argued that none of them were at their peak (granting that there may be a chicken-egg relationship here) when they fought Cormier. The record is nonetheless impressive, but does fighting larger men really make him clearly the best challenger Jones has faced?

The power of a mouthpiece

The UFC has historic ties to professional wrestling, with the lines occasionally blurring where promotional aspects are involved. Jones and Cormier have been promoting this fight for six months because of Jones’ leg injury, and in their verbal jousting, the extremely well-spoken Cormier’s got the best of the champion.

The two have appeared together on ESPN multiple times, their mutual dislike for one another apparent, and we may be seeing the affect on public perception in the lines. Bettors may be mistaking Cormier’s dominance in front of the camera for potential dominance in the match. That kind of perception can shift markets, especially in a sport like MMA that doesn’t rely much on statistics.

The match-up

Amongst the fighters Jones has defeated as champion, Jackson, Evans and Sonnen could be classified as wrestlers and he handled them each with ease. Gustafsson was a challenge for Jones because of his excellent takedown defence, strong striking and his height going some way in nullifying the universal reach advantage (Jones’ 84.5” reach is freakish) Jones wields so effectively in controlling smaller opponents. Cormier possesses a similarly powerful takedown defence record (he’s never been taken down) and steadily improving striking, but his height/reach disadvantage could prove a hurdle.

Cormier's opponents Josh Barnett, Roy Nelson and Dan Henderson could each be classified as wrestlers, but Barnett didn’t strike particularly well, while Nelson and Henderson had both moved away from their wrestling roots by the time they fought Cormier. Jones is a wrestler with phenomenal, controlled striking, a combination Cormier hasn’t faced before. Thus untested, there should be a real question as to whether Cormier can solve the Jones riddle. No one has so far.

Really, this fight will very likely come down to an unstoppable force vs. immovable object equation; it’s Jones’ reach against Cormier’s takedowns, putting the onus on Cormier to figure out a riddle that’s so far unanswered, all the while being punched with precision in the face.

Cormier is clearly a smart man (an underrated talent in MMA), so if you think he’ll find the solution, you may see value there. If you think those markets over the course of Jones’ reign were somewhat sharp? You know what to do. Do it soon; history tells us that if there’s going to be significant movement, it’s going to make Jones more expensive.

Click here to see the latest UFC 182 odds.