Why understanding a player's traits is vital for tennis handicap betting

It's vital for tennis handicap bettors to understand the importance of individual player tendencies, and how they impact the game/set scoring. We assess the handicap records of the ATP top 15 to see if it provides bettors with future angles.

Not all tennis players share the same traits and characteristics. Each player has their own tendencies which contributes to their playing style  – some players are ‘big servers’, while others are strong returners. These tendencies shape each game, set and match. Identifying these traits is therefore paramount for bettors betting on handicap markets both pregame and live.

Matches involving 'big servers' for instance are generally very tight, and are typically decided by several key points. Due to this, playing key points and tiebreaks well is a key asset – something that John Isner, in particular, has honed in recent years. If these players lead by a break in a set, they tend not to lose that advantage. Conversely, if they are down a break, they face an uphill battle to get on level terms.

Those players stronger on return than serve tend to have different set and game handicap results. Due to their greater ability to break their opponents, they are more likely to win sets by a double-break margin.

We can look at the differences in player style by comparing Jo Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer’s statistics for losing and recovering break leads. From October 2013 until the end of September 2014, Tsonga lost a break lead just 14.86% of the time, ranking him 6th best on the ATP Tour. In comparison, Ferrer did so 25.17% of the time, which is just below the top 100 average of 28.72%.

Identifying these player traits is paramount for betting on handicap market

Despite Ferrer still performing better when a break up than the mean, this statistic is far less impressive when you consider the Spaniard was ranked in the top six in the world for almost the whole of 2014. On the flip side, he recovered a break deficit 47.71% of the time, whereas Tsonga could do so just 27.27% - highlighting the difference in playing styles.

Taking these statistics into account, it’s clear to see that Tsonga has much more stable set scorelines, with many more service games being held by both him and his opponent compared to a game involving Ferrer.

The following table illustrates the handicap records of the ATP top 15 in 2014 in best of three set matches:-

Djokovic, Federer & Nadal

Immediately we can see how dominant Novak Djokovic is over the rest of the players on the ATP Tour. The world number one was best on tour for winning in straight sets, second for losing the fewest matches in straight sets, first in deciding set win percentage and he also covered the -4.5 game handicap line over 11% more than his nearest competitor, Rafael Nadal. However, bettors will be interested to note that the Serb failed to cover this line much more on clay than on his preferred hard surfaces.

Roger Federer and Nadal's stats also show how better the elite three are compared to the field. Only Tomas Berdych managed to win in straight sets as much as the elite three, whilst Federer’s mere two defeats in straight sets – to Milos Raonic in Paris and Tsonga in Toronto – highlights the Swiss legend’s reputation affects opponent’s self-belief when they come close to converting winning positions, in addition to him displaying the fighting qualities he has shown throughout his career. Only the elite three managed to cover the -4.5 game handicap line more than 50% of the time. 

Wawrinka, Nishikori & Murray

World number four Stan Wawrinka claimed to be amongst the elite following Switzerland’s Davis Cup victory over France, but these statistics illustrate how far he is behind the top three. In 2014 he had a poor 44.12% straight sets win percentage, and a woeful 33.33% deciding set win percentage. 

Bettors should also note that 44.12% of Wawrinka’s matches also went to three sets, which indicates an opportunity to bet against him at -1.5 sets on the handicap.

On the back of some impressive late-season results, Kei Nishikori raised his ranking to a career-best number five. The extremely talented Japanese player has a superb deciding set record, which is testament to his game fitness, despite being injury-prone in the past. His 2-1 win percentage is vastly improved from previous years and is a contributing factor to his ranking improvement.

Just below Nishikori in the rankings is Andy Murray. The Scotsman’s 18.18% straight sets defeat percentage ranks him 8th in the top 10 and losing matches in straight sets has been a consistent issue throughout his career. 

Players with a high positive difference tend to win tight sets much more than dominant ones

From 2010 to 2013 Murray lost 25 from 167 best of three encounters in straight sets (14.97%), which is significantly worse than the elite three. Adding to this is his poor straight set win percentage (45.45%) - again much worse than the elite. Despite this, his success at covering the -4.5 game handicap line is better than expectation (only Djokovic covered this more relative to winning in straight sets), which shows he struggles to dominate entire matches, but can control sets.

The 'returner' vs. the 'server'

This difference between winning 2-0 and covering the -4.5 game handicap line is an interesting area to assess.  Of the top 15, just Djokovic, Murray and Nadal managed to cover the -4.5 game line more than they won in straight sets (shown as a negative figure in the table). It is no coincidence that these players boast superb return statistics - they break opponents over 30% of the time - and as mentioned at the start of the article, this attribute leads them to win sets by dominant scorelines.

Players with a high positive difference tend to win tight sets much more than dominant ones. This would be a tendency best attributed to ‘big servers’ and seeing Raonic, Tsonga and Lopez - all big servers - as the three players with the biggest positive difference, is of little surprise. These players however are less viable prospects to back on the game handicap than the likes of Djokovic, Murray and Nadal.

This article gives bettors a number of viable angles for future betting propositions and illustrates why they should analyse individual player tendencies prior to placing a tennis handicap bet.