Liverpool v Swansea: Monk's men to cause Reds more Anfield frustration

Swansea's Wilfried Bony could cause Liverpool big problems

Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers faces his old protege Garry Monk on Monday night at Anfield, and Kevin Hatchard believes the apprentice could defy the master.

Liverpool v Swansea
Monday, December 29, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Liverpool

Liverpool are like a rock band who had a massive hit album, but then the bad-boy frontman left, and no way has been found to replace him. The style of the music has been changed too much, and even though the band's manager is constantly tinkering in the studio with bells and whistles, the right rhythm remains elusive.

Although Liverpool emerged from their Boxing Day trip to Burnley with a 1-0 victory, they performed disappointingly. Raheem Sterling's goal was delightful (the Philippe Coutinho pass to release him was sumptuous), but it came against the run of play, and Burnley created enough chances to take at least a point.

The most alarming thing for Liverpool fans to see at Turf Moor was the complete lack of confidence of keeper Simon Mignolet, who replaced the injured Brad Jones. A spell on the bench hasn't refreshed him, it's pushed him deeper into the abyss of self-doubt. At Turf Moor he saw a kick charged down, he misjudged high balls, and at one stage he inexplicably allowed a ball that was travelling fairly slowly to cross the by-line before he cleared it.

If Liverpool are to close the gap between themselves and the top four, they must improve their home record. Opta tell us they have won just two of their last eight Premier League games at Anfield, and in their last eight home games in all competitions they have scored just seven goals. They have beaten Swansea once already at Anfield this season, but they were 1-0 down with four minutes left before a late rally saw them make progress in the League Cup.

Brendan Rodgers is likely to persist with a three-man defence. Glen Johnson and Dejan Lovren are still out, so Mamadou Sakho should continue alongside Martin Skrtel and Kolo Toure. Sterling is likely to be utilised as a striker once again, with Mario Balotelli kept on the bench.

Swansea

Swansea's Garry Monk was a player under Rodgers at the Liberty Stadium, and after a near-miss in the League Cup he gets another chance to get one over on his old boss. Monk has done a fine job, steadying the ship last season after the turbulent departure of Michael Laudrup, and keeping the Swans well clear of the relegation scrap this term. Swansea are currently three points and a place above Liverpool in the standings, and another win on Monday night would cement their place in the top eight.

Monk has used his vast experience as a central defender to drill his team and keep them organised, and they have the best defensive record outside the Premier League's top four. They have conceded just 19 goals, a record only bettered by Chelsea, Manchester City and Southampton. Swansea have kept clean sheets in their last two matches, beating both Hull and Aston Villa 1-0.

Although Swansea will almost certainly be without the elusive running of Ecuador winger Jefferson Montero, their dangerous duo Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wilfried Bony are both fit. Sigurdsson has scored four goals and produced eight assists this season, while Bony has banged in eight goals and set up two more.

Bony scored twice at Anfield in last season's 4-3 win for Liverpool, and Opta tell us he has scored the first goal in three of his last four starts away from home. His movement is excellent, and I can see him slipping through the gaps in that three-man Liverpool defence.

Match Odds

Although Liverpool have put in some decent displays in recent weeks, I can't support them at 1.738/11. You never know what type of performance Liverpool will produce on home soil these days, and even when they do have the upper hand, they often squander good chances or give poor goals away.

Swansea came close to winning at Anfield in the League Cup, and although their general away record isn't great (just two wins in eight games), they won't go to Liverpool with any fear. If they can play their possession football and frustrate, then they can neutralise the home crowd and use their speed and invention on the break. I think the Swans can nick a result, and a low-risk lay is the way to go.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us there have been 16 goals in the last three Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Swansea, and the two teams shared three goals in that League Cup tie back in October.

On that basis, you might be tempted to go for Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9310/11, but I'm actually leaning the other way. Swansea haven't scored more than once on their travels since a 4-2 defeat at Chelsea in September, while I've already alluded to Liverpool's offensive failures at Anfield. I think this could be a tight game, so I'm backing unders at 2.0621/20.

To Score

Wilfried Bony hasn't scored in his last two games, but he's had success at Anfield before, and he is having a superb season overall. 2.829/5 for the Ivorian to score at any time looks generous.

Raheem Sterling scored twice against Bournemouth in the League Cup and netted the winner against Burnley, and he is 2.3811/8 to find the net again.

Recommended Bets
Lay Liverpool at 1.738/11
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0621/20
Back Wilfried Bony to score at 2.829/5