Football Bet of the Day: Dutch to master Cypriot visitors

Ajax coach Frank de Boer has demanded Europa League qualification

After a comfortable winner last night, Kevin Hatchard's on the hunt for more success in the Champions League.

Ajax v APOEL
Wednesday December 10, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Interactive

The Red Imps of Lincoln City did the business for us last night, dismissing hapless Nuneaton Town 3-1 in the Conference Premier. As it turned out, we could have been a touch more greedy, but we'll gleefully take the win.

This column is happy to try and cater for all tastes, and so we lurch incongruously from the Conference Premier to the Champions League today. We're off to Amsterdam for a bit of relaxation, sight-seeing, and what's effectively a Europa League qualification play-off between Ajax and APOEL.

With Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain strutting their stuff in sparkling fashion, these two sides have played the role of emaciated cats fighting for scraps at the back of a restaurant. They drew 1-1 when they met in Cyprus, but while APOEL lost all four of their games against Barca and PSG, Ajax's 1-1 draw with the French giants in the Netherlands has given them the edge going into this clash.

Far too many people disparage the Europa League for my liking, but Ajax coach Frank de Boer has openly stated he wants to qualify for Europe's secondary tournament, as it is a bigger test for his players than the Dutch Eredivisie. On that basis, I would expect de Boer to select his strongest possible team. The Dutch tactician has injury issues to contend with, as Viktor Fischer, Kolbeinn Sigthorsson and Nicolas Boilesen are all absent.

APOEL's approach to European competition is to keep things tight, but they might not be able to do that in Amsterdam for two reasons. Firstly, they need a win to leapfrog Ajax and qualify for the Europa League, so at some stage they'll have to open up the game. 

Secondly, APOEL have personnel problems at the back - Joao Guilherme is suspended, John Arne Riise is ill, and Carlao faces a late fitness test. The Cypriot league leaders also have absentees in midfield, with Vinicius and Costas Charalambides both injured. 

If the defence malfunctions, then APOEL really are in trouble, because they lack firepower. They haven't scored in any of their last three Champions League games, and in their last six matches in all competitions they have netted just two goals.

Ajax have won four of their last five home games, and although those wins were against moderate domestic opposition, confidence has been boosted. APOEL's defensive absentees weaken them considerably, and I can't see them being able to up the tempo if they need to. It's also worth considering that APOEL are without a win in 11 European away games.

An outright Ajax win is trading at 1.684/6, but if the Dutch break APOEL's resistance early, they could slice and dice them on the counter in the latter stages. Let's back Ajax -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.1411/10.

Recommended Bet

Back Ajax -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.1411/10

2014 P/L (1 pt per bet)

Points Staked: 65

Points Returned: 58.15

P/L: -6.85 points